Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Kamala Harris heading home came as a complete surprise

In the same comment to Au revoir Tim Ryan as Ohio Representative retires from race that I quoted in Sestak sinks and Bullock bows out as both drop out, I made predictions about when I expected the second-tier candidates would drop out.
I don't think Kamala Harris is leaving until after she faceplants in Iowa. Also, as much as you might dislike Mayor Pete, who tacked left and then back to the center, he's essentially tied with Harris nationwide and well ahead of her in Iowa. He also has a lot of money behind him. I think he'll be in the contest until Super Tuesday, at least. Booker should last until South Carolina and Klobuchar until New Hampshire.
This was in response to Nebris making his wishes known.
I suspect Harris is next. She shut all her offices in New Hampshire and is going all in on Iowa. I expect her to eat shit there and that will be that.
While I was right that Steve Bullock was one of the next two to leave, both Nebris and I were wrong that Harris would last until Iowa, although Nebris was closer to reality when he thought she would be "next."  As CBS News reported yesterday, Senator Kamala Harris drops out of 2020 presidential race.

CBSN political reporter Caitlin Huey-Burns joins CBSN's "Red & Blue" to discuss Senator Kamala Harris ending her presidential bid and its impact on the 2020 Democratic race.
Despite all the reporting from Politico and the New York Times about disarray in Harris's campaign, she had qualified for the December debate.  I fully expected her to be on the stage.  That's not going to happen, much to my surprise.  So far, candidates who qualified for debates have continued their campaigns.

I wasn't the only one surprised by Harris's decision.  FiveThirtyEight had the same reaction in their emergency Politics Podcast Harris Drops Out.

The crew reacts to Sen. Kamala Harris's decision to drop out of the Democratic primary.
Despite the short time between the announcement and the recording, the four panelists managed a fairly comprehensive analysis of the situation, especially since they were able to build on what Harris should be thankful for — not much other than the support of her husband.  Now that she's dropped out, she can be thankful for all the supportive statements from her fellow candidates included in the CBS News clip I embedded above.  That's small consolation for her being the most major candidate to have dropped out so far.

As I have done with all the other candidates to have left the campaign, I will retire all of her recipes and memes.  Follow over the jump.

I begin with Harris's meme from Senators and Representatives running for the Democratic nomination are drifting to the left as they campaign.

Kamala Harris has not had a steady a journey to the left as Warren.  She began in April with a score of -0.702.  She had moved slightly to the center by end of May with an ideology score of -0.696.  Harris now has moved to the left of where she was last month with an ideology score of -0.710, making her more liberal than 97% of Democrats in the 116th Senate and the second most liberal Senator as well.  All this time, she has been the second most liberal candidate according to Voteview.
I updated Harris's ideological location in An update on Democratic candidates' Voteview scores before Congress returns from August recess.
Kamala Harris was -0.710 in July and is now -0.713 and is still the second most liberal member of the current Senate, so she is continuing her leftward drift according to Voteview, which contrasts with her drift to the center according to On The Issues.
Harris left the race with an ideology score of -0.714, so she continued her drift to the left right up to the end, although she is still the second most liberal Senator behind Elizabeth Warren with a score of -0.769, which is unchanged since August.

Now, Harris's meme from's take on the Democratic presidential candidates from left to center.

Four candidates tie for next most liberal economically with a score of 10.  However, all have different social scores that break the tie.  Elizabeth Warren has the highest social score, 85.  This makes her the second most liberal candidate overall.  Kamela Harris has the next most liberal social score, 78, placing her third.  So far, no surprises.  However, On The Issues considers Joe Biden to be the next most liberal candidate with a social score of 75 to place him fourth.
I reused the same meme for Harris in On The Issues shows most of the Democratic candidates have moved left during the campaign, too.
The next most liberal candidate is neither Elizabeth Warren nor Joe Sestak, at least when using the formula of lowest economic score followed by the highest social score.  Instead, it's Kamela Harris, who now has an economic score of 8, while her social score is still 78.  She has now moved one place to the left since mid-June, two if one counts Joe Sestak, who was evaluated last month using his Senate rating from 2010 instead of his current Democratic nomination score.
I reused it one more time in Democratic candidates continue to drift leftwards according to On The Issues.
Another candidate that Democratic voters consider Establishment is Kamela Harris, whose economic score increased from 8 to 10, making her two points less liberal.  Meanwhile, her social score remained constant at 78.  In June, that combination placed as the third most liberal; now, she's the eighth most liberal.  Again, standing still is allowing other candidates to pass her to her left.  That may not be a bad idea; I think both Harris and Biden are seeking the center of the primary field.
While I'm retiring this chart because Harris has dropped out, I would have had to been retired even if she were still running.  First, Harris left the campaign with a more moderate social score of 73, which, combined with her economic score of 10 places her closer to Amy Klobuchar than Joe Biden.  Harris ended her run as the fourth most liberal member of the field according to On The Issues.  Second, Biden himself has become more moderate with an economic score of 15 and a social score of 80.  The two no longer share the same point on the Nolan Grid.  Time to make new graphs for Biden, Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Tom Steyer, and Andrew Yang, who now share a spot.

Finally, here are the drinks I recommended for her in Drinks for the Democratic debates, Part 2.

While Kamala Harris told Eater her favorite comfort food is french fries, U.S. News and World Report mentioned that her favorite restaurants are Amber India and Dosa in San Francisco.  I couldn't find any alcoholic beverages on Dosa's menu, but Amber India's bar menu has some really interesting cocktails.  Unfortunately, they're all unique, although one, the Pink Elephant, has several variants out in the wild.  Any one of them will do.  That written, Harris is from Oakland, California, and the most famous drink to come out of there is the Mai Tai from the original Trader Vic's.  Tipsy Bartender has the original recipe.
This drink is made using the original recipe created by Trader Vic...THE ORIGINAL MAI TAI! This is one of the classics that defines the genre of tiki drinks. Tiki drinks are rum based and have a fruity taste. The Mai Tai is refreshing and potent, with a nice kick of fruitiness. Best served poolside or on a sandy tropical beach. Don't forget your little cocktail umbrella!
So long, Senator!  Sorry you didn't last as long as either I or the experts at FiveThirtyEight expected you to.


  1. Somewhat surprising since for most of the race she was one of the "big five" who seemed to have a real shot at the nomination. Maybe that disarray within the campaign was worse than has been generally reported, or maybe she's genuinely less ego-driven than most candidates and had a more sober assessment of her chances.

    At any rate, lets hope some of the minor candidates (including ego-tripping billionaires) grasp the point that if Harris had no real chance, they don't either. The field is still too cluttered.

    1. I think it's a bit of both. She certainly had more sense than ego about the campaign's finances. As for lesser candidates getting out, that depends on their motivations as well as resources. Steyer has qualified for the next debate, so he's not leaving. Neither is Gabbard, whose fans are taking credit for damaging Harris. I think they're being delusional and petty. On the other hand, both Booker and Castro have made noises about getting out if they don't get more money. So far, they've gotten it. I could go on.

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