Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Gas falls as I expected while oil inches up

The previous report told the story Gas stabilizes as oil bounces around.
[T]he corner station lowered its price to $2.39, matching the rest of the neighborhood outlets.  That written, all of them are priced too high, as GasBuddy shows the Detroit average at $2.36.  Based on historical patterns, the stations should be a dime lower than that at $2.26.  That would be an odd price, so I expect $2.29, a dime less than their current price, within the week as long as there is no jump in local average prices.
That was exactly the price of gas at all four stations in my old neighborhood when I drove through yesterday, including the corner station.  I called it.  I also filled up Ruby to take advantage of the lower price.

As for oil, the day after the previous gas price report, which reported WTI at $50.09 and Brent at $57.10, Iran nuclear deal eases fear premium listed both indexes falling, WTI at $49.14 and Brent at $54.95 a barrel.  Prices went back up, as OilPrice.Net shows that both have regained all of their losses from last week and then some, with WTI closing today at $53.98 and Brent ending the session at $59.10.  The fear premium may be gone, but there are plenty of other reasons for oil to increase in price.

Predicting the future of gas prices may be difficult, as the local retail environment and the commodities market are going in different directions.  The Detroit average sat yesterday at $2.34, so the stations could drop as much as a nickel.  On the other hand, the national average seems to have hit bottom at $2.39, so prices may be preparing to go up.  In addition, the spot price of RBOB went up yesterday along with crude oil, rising nearly 1% to close at $1.86.  If the commodity prices continue to go up or hold steady, they will pull retail prices up.  The only question is how long.  Stay tuned.

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