CNBC explains 'How China Proved It Can Shut Down Global Auto Production,' a driving update

I promised a driving update for the new car and I'm getting to it over the jump after sharing CNBC explaining How China Proved It Can Shut Down Global Auto Production.

China dominates the world‘s production and processing of rare earth elements, which are used in all kinds of things: sports equipment, national defense, and each of the roughly 16 million cars sold in the US every year. Over the last few years, the Asian country has been tightening access and suddenly restricted exports in early April 2025. The move sent shockwaves through the auto industry which can’t build cars without these minerals. CNBC Dove in to see how we got here, and how the auto industry might find its way out.

China's dominance of rare earth element production and processing is something I mention to my students every semester in both geology and environmental science. I first mentioned it here in 2012, and wrote an entire entry about it in 2019, when I warned China threatens to restrict exports of rare earths.

I point out that the U.S. is 100% dependent on imports of 21 minerals, chief among them rare earths, and that many of the countries that we import them from are not our friends, especially China and Russia. Not only do I tell my students this, but I say that China in particular could cut off exports of rare earths, which would cripple our ability to make many products.

Thanks to Donald "Hoover Cleveland" Trump's tariffs, it looks like the day I've been warning my students about for more than a decade has arrived. Sometimes, I wish I weren't right.

That's the general driving situation. Follow over the jump for my personal driving update.

CNBC explains 'Why The World Is Rushing Back To The Moon'

I wrote "I might post another entry today" at the end of The 2023-2024 Environmental Media Association Awards nominees. As my readers can see, I was able to compose one, a follow up to 'NASA 2024: Onward and Upward' and 'ESA’s future of space travel' early this month. I return to the topic of the future of space travel with CNBC explaining Why The World Is Rushing Back To The Moon.

During the Cold War, competition between the the United States and the former USSR was fierce, as the two countries rallied for the chance to make history by getting to the moon first. In 1959, the Soviet Union beat the U.S. to become the first nation to reach the surface of the moon with its Luna 2 spacecraft. But, the United States was the first country to put man on the moon in 1969, and to this day is still the only nation to have landed people on the moon. To date, only five nations, the U.S., Russia, China, Japan and India, have completed a successful soft landing on the moon. But bolstered by evidence of the presence of water and other natural resources, many more nations and private companies are now seeking to get to the moon. And whoever is able to establish a significant lunar presence first could have big implications on Earth as well as the cosmos.

I'll take a space race between the U.S. and China if it motivates the U.S. to return to the Moon and spurs us to go on to Mars. I'm also glad that CNBC mentioned that Artemis was one program the Biden Administration retained from the Trump Administration. I being a good environmentalist by recycling what I wrote in NASA and '60 Minutes' on women in NASA for International Women's Day and reused in The Artemis program and NASA's proposed 2022 budget for Yuri's Night 2021.

I'm glad that Joe Biden's Administration publicly supports the continuation of the Trump Administration's plans for space exploration. As I wrote five years ago and repeated the next year, "space policy is the one area where Trump might actually be good for the country" and "Trump's plan is actually not a bad idea." I was worried that the Biden Administration would dump the one Trump policy I supported along with all the ones I couldn't stand. I'm relieved that they didn't.

File this under "even a stuck clock is right twice a day" and Donald Trump is definitely a stuck clock.

That was earlier this week. CNN examined the subject earlier today when it asked Could space be the next platform for war? Hear what NASA official thinks.

CNN's Christiane Amanpour speaks with NASA deputy administrator Pamela Melroy about the potential that space could be the next platform for war between nations.

Fortunately, Pamela Melroy thinks the answer is no. However, I wonder if she would get the same answer from a high-ranking officer of Space Force. Now I'm tempted to leave that as a suggestion in a comment to the video.

That's it for today's space update. Stay tuned for the highlights of tonight's Saturday Night Live tomorrow.

People want pandas, so 'SNL' opens with a panda at Biden's press conference

Last night's episode of Saturday Night Live began by laughing at the priorities of the media and its consumers in Biden Panda Cold Open.

President Joe Biden (Mikey Day) holds a press conference after meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Watching the reporters being more interested in Bowen Yang's panda then Mikey Day's Biden using that interest to deflect from inconvenient questions reminds me of what my friend Nebris says is one of my great insights.

"America is quite clear about its screwed up priorities­. My experience has convinced me that the surest way to get Americans to act is to mess with their entertainm­ent" and "Americans want their entertainment, and will do just about anything to keep it going."

China taking its pandas back messed with a lot of Americans' entertainment and they want new pandas. The media are happy to cater to this desire, which draws clicks and views. Should the Chinese lend pandas back to U.S. zoos, it will make both China, if not Xi, and Biden more popular in the U.S. That's a win-win. Now to see if it actually happens.

Weekend Update: Biden Calls Chinese President a Dictator, Trump Jr. Testifies in Fraud Trial mentioned one of the reasons that deal might not happen.

Weekend Update anchors Colin Jost and Michael Che tackle the week's biggest news, like Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin challenging the Teamsters union president to a fistfight.

I agree with Biden; Xi's a dictator. Just the same, that's not helpful in getting what we want out of the U.S.-China relationship.

I haven't been at all diligent about coming up with drinks and memes for Republican candidates, let alone writing farewell posts when they drop out, so I'm relieved that Tim Scott dropped out. It saved me the trouble. Bye!

Colin Jost rephrased my recycled comment.

My wife used to work for the Teamsters and we live three miles away from the last place Jimmy Hoffa was seen alive, so we know anyone asking to fight that union's president is asking for trouble. I wonder if Senator Mullin has a clue about that.

Based on the way we bragged about it on right-wing televison outlets, I'd say Mullin either doesn't know or doesn't care.

I don't know if Senator Markwayne Mullin has a death wish or not, but I agree with Jost — never mess with the Teamsters!

The next clip returns to the topic of George Santos not running for re-election after ethics report, closer looks from Colbert, Meyers, and Kimmel, Weekend Update: Colin Jost Interviews Rep. George Santos Again - SNL.

Rep. George Santos (Bowen Yang) stops by Weekend Update to discuss the House Ethics Committee's report claiming he used campaign funds for personal spending.

One of my best and easiest predictions was that George Santos will be a great inspiration for comedy as long as he stays in the news. That's continuing to come true.

Follow over the jump for the rest of the highlight's from last night's episode.

Closer looks at 'Congressional Fight Club' from Colbert, Meyers, and 'The Daily Show'

Wild things have been going on while I've been busy celebrating holidays. Stephen Colbert talked about some of them in Congressional Fight Club | Biden and Xi Play It Cool | Dems Hand Mike Johnson a Victory.

GOP infighting has turned the halls of Congress into a fight club, the U.S. and China set low expectations for the Biden-Xi meeting, and the new House Speaker took heat from his own party after passing a government spending bill with help from Democrats.

"He said, Xi said" — that joke wrote itself. That's O.K., it's still funny. Less funny but even more ridiculous is what Republicans in Congress are doing to each other, which was the subject of GOP Senator Challenges Teamsters Head to Fight, McCarthy Accused of Sucker Punch: A Closer Look.

Seth takes a closer look at Republicans turning the U.S. Capitol into the UFC Octagon after former House speaker Kevin McCarthy allegedly assaulted a congressman and a senator challenged a witness to a physical fight during a hearing.

Seth and his writers echoed my sentiments about the confrontation between Markwayne Mullin and Teamsters president Sean O'Brien, which I expressed in a comment on LONG BEFORE TRUMP, WE SHOULD NEVER HAVE NORMALIZED FOX NEWS at No More Mister Nice Blog.

My wife used to work for the Teamsters and we live three miles away from the last place Jimmy Hoffa was seen alive, so we know anyone asking to fight that union's president is asking for trouble. I wonder if Senator Mullin has a clue about that.

Based on the way we bragged about it on right-wing televison outlets, I'd say Mullin either doesn't know or doesn't care. I'm glad he's not my senator!

Leslie Jones and Desi Lydic tackled "Congressional Fight Club" and more in Congress Erupts in Fights & San Francisco "Cleans Up” for the President of China | The Daily Show.

Leslie Jones covers San Francisco's problematic cleaning spree,...USPS's [$]6.5 billion loss, and Desi Lydic weighs in on the many fights erupting in Congress.

I'm glad California Governor Gavin Newsom is owning what's going on, even if it doesn't make him look good outside of San Francisco. Inside the city, it probably make him look great. I just wish it didn't take a meeting of heads of state to get it to happen. And, yes, it would be cheaper to house the homeless instead of leaving them on the streets. Too bad our screwed-up priorities don't allow that.

I'm sorry to read about the problems the USPS is having. It is still a government agency, even if it operates a lot like a government-owned corporation such as Amtrak, though it lost its status as a cabinet-level department more than 50 years ago.

While I'm looking forward to Mike Johnson losing his Speakership because of doing the wrong thing, I'm relieved that he hasn't lost it for doing the right thing, as Kevin McCarthy was. Speaking of whom, he's living down to my nickname for him as he got back into the news.

Finally, I'm not as sure as Jones that Lydic would lose to Cruz, punch line or not — pun intended.

I'm wondering what to write about tomorrow, as it's the real date of Life Day, which falls on November 17th and was originally a stand-in for Thanksgiving, but over the years, it has turned into Star Wars Christmas, so many fans celebrate it then. Stay tuned.

Vietnam bans 'Barbie,' the most anticipated film of the year, over map showing Chinese territorial claim

After two days of scary climate change news, I'm in another "I can't be all DOOM all the time" mood, so I'm posting the Sunday entertainment feature a day early because Souther is tomorrow. That written, today's topic seems silly but has a serious component, as Inside Edition reports Margot Robbie’s ‘Barbie’ Movie Banned in Vietnam.

The “Barbie” movie is one of the summer's most highly anticipated movies but it's sparking an unexpected controversy. A map, seen in the film, shows a jagged line off the coast of China that allegedly represents the country's disputed claim to the South China Sea. China claims that everything inside that jagged line is theirs but every other nation that borders the South China Sea disputes that. Now, Vietnam is banning the movie and the Philippines may follow suit. The movie’s producer says the map is only make-believe and was not intended to make any statement about the real world. Inside Edition's Alison Hall has more.

This seems like a tempest in a teapot, but the dispute between China and its neighbors, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines, is deadly serious, as DW News explains in Vietnam bans 'Barbie' movie over map of South China Sea.

Vietnam has banned the movie 'Barbie'. The Margot Robbie starrer was due to be released there on July 21, but won't be released now. State media reported this was because the film included a map showing unilateral Chinese claims in the South China Sea.

Yikes! This explains why the U.S. and Philippines announced four new bases in the country this April. That's quite the reversal of policy after the U.S. abandoned Clark Air Base in 1991 and Naval Base Subic Bay in 1992. That happened because the end of the Cold War and the Philippines' people and government's irritation at the bases becoming attractive nuisances because of the American servicemen's appetite for vice. The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, a story I tell my students, sped the process along. It looks like the rise of China as a world power and regional threat made the Philippines reconsider the advantages of a U.S. military presence. I don't know if that would ever happen in Vietnam, but stranger things have happened.

Speaking of stranger things, but unfortunately not the Netflix series, this has spilled over into domestic politics, as the Politico article shown in the "Inside Edition" video reported in GOP declares war on ... Barbie.

GOP lawmakers accuse filmmakers of pandering to Chinese censors. But Warner Bros. Film Group, which produced the movie, said Thursday the map is not intended to “make any type of statement.”

Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), who leads a select House panel aimed at countering the influence of China, said the map “illustrates the pressure that Hollywood is under to please CCP censors.”

“While it may just be a Barbie map in a Barbie world, the fact that a cartoonish, crayon-scribbled map seems to go out of its way to depict the PRC’s unlawful territorial claims illustrates the pressure that Hollywood is under to please CCP censors,” Gallagher said in a statement to POLITICO. “I hope Warner Brothers clarifies that the map was not intended to endorse any territorial claims and was in fact, the work of a formerly plastic anthropomorphic doll.”

Warner Bros., in its own statement to POLITICO, said there were no geopolitics intended in “Barbie.”

“The map in Barbie Land is a child-like crayon drawing,” a spokesperson for the Warner Bros. Film Group said. “The doodles depict Barbie’s make-believe journey from Barbie Land to the ‘real world.’ It was not intended to make any type of statement.”

Oh, dear dog. Anything to generate outrage along with anti-China and anti-Hollywood sentiment.

This controversy began just after "Barbie" won its first award, even before its release, for Most Anticipated Film at the Hollywood Critics Association Midseason Awards.


"Barbie" beat "Oppenheimer," the runner-up, which it shares a release date with, along with "Dune: Part Two," "Killers of the Flower Moon," and "Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One." That's a list of potentially great movies, all of which I expect to see nominated in future awards shows, including the Saturn Awards, which I vote for.

I'm ending this post with an appropriate musical palate cleanser, Barbie Girl - Vintage Beach Boys - Style Aqua Cover ft. Morgan James.


Stay tuned for Souther.

Vox explains 'Why China is losing the microchip war'

While U.S.-China tensions are high because of a balloon, there are other important issues between the two largest economies. Vox examines one of them in Why China is losing the microchip war.

And why the US and China are fighting over silicon in the first place.
...
In October 2022, the Biden administration placed a large-scale ban on the sale of advanced semiconductor chips to China. They also implemented a series of other rules that prevents China from making these chips on their own. These chips are used in everyday technology, like our mobile phones and computers. They’re also crucial to military and intelligence systems, which is one of the main reasons they're at the center of a feud between the United States and China.

Microchips were first invented in the US in the 1950s, after which their use rapidly expanded worldwide. Since then, the supply chain for these chips has grown and spread to include countries in Europe and Asia. And while some countries have caught up to the US's edge in making these advanced chips, China still falls far behind despite multiple attempts to gain an advantage.

Watch the latest episode of Vox Atlas to understand why China is losing a new cold war with the US over microchips.

The chip shortage is not just about consumer goods. It's also about national security. To elaborate, I'm being a good environmentalist and recycling.

Ugh, the U.S.-China trade war. I wrote about how it might accelerate the Retail Apocalypse, restrict U.S. access to Chinese rare earths, reduce GDP and increase inflation, trigger a recession, threaten...Family Dollar, and cause Dollar Tree to increase prices, but I didn't expect it would show up in this story, yet here it is. This entire story serves as another example of everything is connected to everything else and there is no free lunch; mess with some part of a system and the effects will move through all the connections at rates and sizes ranging from ripples to cascades. In this case, it looked more like a cascade.

This video shows even more of the connections, as well as the role technology plays in national security. Welcome to science fiction times.

Seth Meyers and 'The Daily Show' take closer looks at the Chinese spy balloon and other stories

I'm returning to the Chinese spy balloon today, beginning with "The Late Show with Seth Meyers" in Biden Takes Out Chinese Spy Balloon After Fox News Spends Days Freaking Out: A Closer Look.

Seth takes a closer look at the incredibly dumb Chinese spy balloon melodrama that exposed just how vacuous and silly much of the right-wing media discourse is.

Seth packed more facts and jokes in this segment than "Saturday Night Live" did in its two segments on the story. We can still learn more with laughs, so I'm turning to "The Daily Show" with this week's guest host, Chelsea Handler, beginning her week with Biden Murders a Chinese Spy Balloon & Marjorie Taylor Greene Hates Her Job | The Daily Show.

Chelsea Handler tackles the latest news including the Chinese spy balloon shot down in South Carolina, Marjorie Taylor Greene complaining about her job, George Santos accused of groping an aide, and Mt. Washington being reportedly colder than Mars.

Yes, Chelsea and her writers had the gas to get fresh clips and jokes about the balloon. I'm passing over Marjorie Taylor Greene complaining about her job to point out that while the latest thing George Santos did wasn't funny, he continues to make my prediction that he will be a great inspiration for comedy as long as he stays in the news true. Unlike Chelsea, I understand what Mt. Washington being colder than Mars means. Just the same, Chelsea is my first choice to replace Trevor, followed by Wanda Sykes. Let's see if that ranking holds. Stay tuned.

James Webb Space Telescope is the top science story of 2022

It's the last week of 2022, so it's time for me to look back at the year about to end with retrospectives until New Year's Eve. I'm changing up the order from previous years and beginning this year's series with the year in science. As I have all those years and more, I start my examination with Science Magazine's 2022 Breakthrough of the Year: JWST's golden eye sees the universe anew.

Not many telescopes get introduced by the president, but JWST, the gold-plated wunderkind of astronomy built by NASA with the help of the European and Canadian space agencies, deserves that honor. It is the most complex science mission ever put into space and at $10 billion the most expensive. And it did not come easy.

Science Magazine has more at 2022 Breakthrough of the Year on their website, including nine runners-up and three stories in a category I don't remember seeing before, Breakdowns of the Year. Those include the failure/discontinuance of Zero COVID in China, international conflicts and tensions affecting science cooperation among the major powers, and the war in Ukraine causing an increase in carbon dioxide emissions. I agree; none of these are good news.

WatchMojo compiled their own list of the Top 10 Biggest Scientific Discoveries of 2022.

These scientific discoveries will blow your mind! For this list, we’ll be looking at the most amazing things we learned through scientific research this year. Our countdown includes Brain Cells Playing Video Games, Footprints from the Ice Age, A Detailed View of the Distant Universe, and more! What do you think is the most significant discovery here? Are there any we missed? Tell us in the comments.

WatchMojo added an obvious top ten story in the comments and pinned it.

The discoveries keep coming! On December 13th, researchers announced that they'd managed to produce more energy from a fusion experiment than they'd put in, a groundbreaking step towards abundant clean energy!

That was only one day after WatchMojo uploaded the video. There is such a thing as being too soon. Just the same, I doubt nuclear fusion would have displaced the JWST from the top of either list.

Speaking of the JWST, this post makes for a second installment on the space telescope after Time introduces the 2022 Nobel Prize winners plus the Innovator of the Year for Nobel Prize Day. I plan on covering it again tomorrow for 2022 in space, along with the successful DART mission that made both Science Magazine's and WatchMojo's top ten. Stay tuned.

China's efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for Earth Day, a Flashback Friday special

Happy Earth Day and Flashback Friday! As I wrote in yesterday's Trailers for 'Prehistoric Planet' and 'Jurassic World: Dominion' for Throwback Thursday, "The theme for this week's retrospectives is the back catalog." Today's featured post is U.S.-China EcoPartnerships: The CoDominion plans for sustainability from 2011, whose story I am sharing over the jump. In the meantime, I'm updating how the U.S.-China relationship approaches sustainability with CNBC's How The U.S. Fell Behind China In The Fight Against Climate Change from November 2020.

Ever since President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, China has played an increasingly large role in the international fight against climate change. The country is now the world’s largest manufacturer of solar panels, lithium ion batteries, and electric vehicles. But while China has stepped up in these regards, it is still the global leader in carbon emissions, and burns more coal than the rest of the world combined. As President-elect Joe Biden looks to reassert American leadership in green energy and climate initiatives, it remains to be seen whether the U.S. and China can work collaboratively to address the climate crisis.

CORRECTION (November 16, 2020): Barbara Finamore and Alvin Lin both work at the “Natural Resources Defense Council” not the “National Resources Defense Council”

Alvin Lin shows up in Treasures of the Earth: Power where he gives the answer to one of the questions on the worksheet: "21. How many deaths are caused by China’s air pollution every year?" The answer he gives is 1.6 million in 2016, more than one out of every thousand Chinese. I also show a slide in my class about air pollution deaths in 2013, the year of the Chinese "airpocalypse" in the CNBC video. That year, about 1.7 million Chinese died from air pollution. Here's the image.


While 1.6 million is terrible, I won't minimize the 100,000 fewer deaths over three years from 2013. It's a sign of progress.
Speaking of "Treasures of the Earth: Power," here are some other questions addressed by this video, along with their answers.

9. What are the effects of burning coal and oil on the Earth’s atmosphere?

Both release carbon dioxide, which is a greenhouse gas that traps heat and warms up the atmosphere and oceans. Not mentioned in the video is that it also acidifies surface waters, particularly the oceans.

19. Solar panels are increasing by what percentage every year?

In 2016, solar panel installations were increasing 25% per year. Wow!

20.How are the Chinese attempting to solve a fundamental problem with solar energy?

They are storing electricity from solar energy in enormous banks of batteries to be released when the sun is not shining. This is a solution to the intermittency problem.

CNBC's video was from 2020. Bloomberg Quicktake updated the topic in How China Plans to Win the Future of Energy last month.

China, the world’s biggest polluter, has committed to reach net zero emissions by 2060, an ambitious goal matched by enormous investments that are reshaping the nation’s energy system.

Not only are China, Japan, and South Korea announcing net zero goals, so is the United States, which is shooting for net zero by 2050 at least for the federal government. I sincerely wish all four countries good luck in achieving their net zero goals. They need it and so does the planet.

Follow over the jump for the story of how U.S.-China EcoPartnerships: The CoDominion plans for sustainability earned its page views this year.

More good news than bad as NBC reports 600,000 dead in U.S. from COVID-19, a pandemic update

I foreshadowed today's topic in the conclusion of WOOD-TV provides a Michigan perspective on the JBS cyberattack.

I expect I will have a pandemic update first, as the prediction of 600,000 dead in the U.S. from COVID-19 by June 1, 2021 will likely be only a few days off. I expect the country will pass that grim milestone by the end of today.

That happened as NBC News reported Covid has claimed more than 600,000 lives in United States on the night of June 3.

More than 600,000 people have died from Covid-19 in the United States, a grim reminder that even though cases are down as more people are vaccinated, the pandemic is not over.

As of Thursday evening, the country had seen at least 600,040 Covid-19 deaths, according to a count of reports by NBC News. More than 33.4 million cases have been recorded in the U.S.

That's the bad news. NBC News also reported the good news.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a summary late last week that the numbers of cases and deaths had dropped to their lowest levels in almost a year.

The agency said at the time that the number of tests that came back positive for the disease over the previous seven days was below 3 percent, one of the lowest rates since widespread testing began.

The CDC's latest graph of new cases shows that drop.


The good news continued with vaccinations.

More than 136 million people in the U.S. — around 41 percent of the population — have been fully vaccinated, according to the CDC.

Just more than 51 percent of the total population has received at least one dose, and around 63 percent of people 18 or older have gotten at least one dose, according to the CDC.

That good news opened MSNBC's Dr. Fauci: The Covid-19 Pandemic ‘Isn’t Over Yet’ the night before.

Dr. Anthony Fauci urges all Americans to get their Covid-19 vaccine to stop the spread of potential variants and to allow the country to fully reopen. He also reacts to the publication of his emails during the early months of the coronavirus crisis.

I second all of Fauci's answers. Working from the end to the beginning, I think he gave the right response to criticism of his emails, that science is a self-correcting process to get to the truth and that as the state of knowledge improves, so will the advice based on it. This includes getting vaccinated as the vaccines are effective against the current variants. Finally, the pandemic may be receding, but it's far from over. CNBC got that answer when it asked Is it too soon to declare the Covid pandemic over? Follow over the jump to watch that video and others where CNBC interviews Former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb.

CNBC explains how the pandemic disrupted the microchip supply chain for automakers

I suggested today's topic in the footnote to The economics of catalytic converter theft, part 2 of why catalytic converters are being stolen.

Catalytic converters are not the only component of cars to experience a shortage as America recovers from COVID-19; computer chips are, too. I might write about them, as silicon being an important element in auto manufacturing is another story I tell my students. Stay tuned.

CNBC has covered that topic, too. I begin with Why Tiny Microchips Are Crippling The Global Auto Industry And Driving Up Prices from earlier this month.

While the automotive industry was ravaged early on in the pandemic thanks to lockdown measures and a dramatic decrease in travel, it more recently has begun facing a new problem: a shortage of microchips. Microchips are vital to much of a vehicle’s key functions, such as engine control, transmission, infotainment systems, and more.

In the last half of 2020 and now in 2021, vehicle sales recovered fairly quickly, faster than automakers anticipated. Suddenly, they were struggling to meet demand. At the same time, chipmakers were experiencing supply shortages and increased demand from other sectors, such as personal electronics.

With the resulting lack of microchip supply, automakers have been forced to slow production, even on their most popular models. For several automakers, the shortage is expected to cost them $1 billion or more — and even still, the alternatives are worryingly few.

Calculated Risk displayed the crash and rebound of auto sales in April Vehicles Sales increased to 18.51 Million SAAR; Highest Since 2005.



It's easy to see the effect of the pandemic on sales followed by a rapid recovery as lockdowns eased. Still, the shock was enough to break and reforge the links in the microchip supply chain, which CNBC had earlier explained in February's How The Global Computer Chip Shortage Happened.

It’s not an overstatement to say that semiconductors power the modern world. They’re not only a key component of nearly every electronic device we buy and use — they also power the factories that make the electronic devices we buy and use. And now, there aren’t enough of them getting made. Here’s how the global semiconductor chip shortage got so bad, and what’s being done to fix it.

A chip shortage that started as consumers stocked up on personal computers and other electronics during the Covid-19 pandemic now threatens to snarl car production around the world.

GM said that it would extend production cuts in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico until the middle of March. They join a long list of major automakers, including Ford, Honda and Fiat Chrysler, which have warned investors or slowed vehicle production because of the chip shortage.

But it’s not just the automotive industry that’s struggling to get enough semiconductors to build their products. AMD and Qualcomm, which sell chips to most of the top electronics firms, have noted the shortage in recent weeks. Sony blamed the chip shortage for why it’s so hard to get a PlayStation 5 game console.

Chips are likely to remain in short supply in coming months as demand remains higher than ever. The Semiconductor Industry Association said in December that global chip sales would grow 8.4% in 2021 from 2020's total of $433 billion. That’s up from 5.1% growth between 2019 and 2020 -- a notable jump, given how large the absolute numbers are.

Semiconductors are in short supply because of strong demand for electronics, shifting business models in the semiconductor world that created a bottleneck among outsourced chip factories, and effects from the U.S. trade war with China that started under former President Trump.

Ugh, the U.S.-China trade war. I wrote about how it might accelerate the Retail Apocalypse, restrict U.S. access to Chinese rare earths, reduce GDP and increase inflation, trigger a recession, threatened Family Dollar, and cause Dollar Tree to increase prices, but I didn't expect it would show up in this story, yet here it is. This entire story serves as another example of everything is connected to everything else and there is no free lunch; mess with some part of a system and the effects will move through all the connections at rates and sizes ranging from ripples to cascades. In this case, it looked more like a cascade.

Follow over the jump for two videos from CNBC Television reporting on one effort the U.S. government is making to stabilize the microchip supply chain.

'The Cave,' 'Apollo 11,' and 'American Factory' — winning documentaries at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards examined politics and government

After writing about Sandy Hook Promise and Discovery Channel's Shark Week winning Emmy Awards for commercials, it's time to move on to winners for more substantial efforts, documentary features. To that end, it's time to look at the winners out of the films and categories I covered last month in 'The Cave' vs. 'American Factory' — Oscar nominees and other documentaries at the Emmy Awards.

While I featured "The Cave" and "American Factory" in the title of the nominees post because the first was nominated for an Oscar and the second won one, it was one of the other documentaries, "Apollo 11," that won the most Emmy Awards of the nominated documentaries, three, while "The Cave" earned two and "American Factory" took home only one. That written, I begin with "The Cave" because it won the most prestigious category for a documentary at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards, Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking.

Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking

The Cave (National Geographic Channel)
Chasing the Moon (American Experience) (PBS)
Moonlight Sonata: Deafness in Three Movements (HBO)
One Child Nation (PBS)

If I handicapped this category purely on the number of nominations, I'd pick "The Cave" with its four nominations while all the others only have one. In addition, it's the only Oscar nominee in the category. However, electorates matter and the Emmy electorate is not the Oscar electorate. "Icarus" won the Academy Award but did not win any of its categories at the Emmys two years ago and Oscar winner "American Factory" did not even earn a nomination in this category. As for the film that could upset "The Cave," I'd pick "One Child Nation," which was the most nominated documentary at the Critics' Choice Awards, even though it didn't win a single category. After all, I did write "I think it will have better luck at the Emmy Awards next year." This is its one chance to prove me right.

Now the announcement of the winner for Merit in Documentary Filmmaking from the Television Academy.

The team from The Cave wins the Emmy for Outstanding Merit in Documentary Filmmaking.

Handicapping on the numbers worked, as "The Cave" won. It also won the next award.

Outstanding Cinematography for Nonfiction Programming

American Factory - Aubrey Keith, Erick Stoll (Netflix)
Apollo 11 - Buzz Aldrin, Michael Collins (CNN)
Becoming - Nadia Hallgren (Netflix)
The Cave - Muhammed Khair Al Shami, Ammar Sulaiman, Mohammad Eyad (National Geographic)
Sea of Shadows - Richard Ladkani (National Geographic)
Serengeti - Richard Jones, Michael W. Richards, Warren Samuels, Matthew Goodman (Episode: "Rebirth") (Discovery Channel)

This is one of two categories that have three of the top documentaries, four if one counts "Becoming," competing against each other, so the competition is stiff. On the basis of number of nominations, I'd pick "Apollo 11," but it's up against "The Cave" and "American Factory," which are shot by professionals, while Buzz Aldrin and Michael Collins, while legendary astronauts and American heroes, are essentially amateur cameramen. The Emmy electorate might prefer the professionals, which give nature documentaries "Sea of Shadows" and "Serengeti" a chance.

And now, the video of the announcement, 2020 Creative Arts Emmys: Cinematography for a Non-Fiction Program.

The team from The Cave wins the Emmy for Outstanding Cinematography for a Non-Fiction Program.

I was right that it went to professionals instead of amateurs. Congratulations to the crew of "The Cave" for winning two Emmy Awards. You deserve it, especially after beating Oscar winner "American Factory."

"American Factory" did not leave empty-handed, as it won the next award.

Outstanding Directing for a Documentary/Nonfiction Program

Steven Bognar & Julia Reichert, American Factory (Netflix)
Todd Douglas Miller, Apollo 11 (CNN)
Nadia Hallgren, Becoming (Netflix)
Feras Fayyad, The Cave (National Geographic Channel)
Jason Hehir, The Last Dance (Episode: "Episode 7") (ESPN)
Eric Goode & Rebecca Chaiklin, Tiger King (Episode: "Cult of Personality") (Netflix)

This is one tough category for "Tiger King" and "The Last Dance," as both series are up against not only the Oscar nominated "The Cave," but also Critics' Choice Documentary Award and Golden Coffee Cup Movie winner "Apollo 11" and Oscar winner "American Factory." Even "Becoming" about former First Lady Michelle Obama is a serious contender, as it earned a total of four nominations including Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special, directing, and two others. No wonder "McMillion$" didn't make the cut! As for which show will win, I would bet on "American Factory," the Oscar recipient.

I was right! "American Factory" won this category! Unfortunately, the Television Academy did not upload a video. To make up for it, here is "American Factory" wins Best Documentary Feature at the Academy Awards.

Mark Ruffalo presents Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert with the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature for "American Factory" at the 92nd Oscars in 2020.

Better late than never, as I never did recap the Oscar winners, just the nominees. Tsk, tsk, shame on me. Here's to a belated congratulations to "American Factory" for both the Oscar and the Emmy.

Follow over the jump for the three Emmy Awards won by "Apollo 11."

'Harriet' and 'Parasite' headline diversity among Oscar nominees for MLK Day 2020

Time to be a good environmentalist and recycle my salutation to my readers from celebrating diversity in awards shows nominees and winners for MLK Day.

A happy and contemplative Martin Luther King Day to my readers!  To celebrate, I'm continuing the tradition I began with 'Glory' from 'Selma' for MLK Day and continued with Hollywood's diversity issues for MLK Day and 'Hidden Figures' tops the box office for MLK Day plus diversity among Golden Globes winners, examining diversity and representation in entertainment....

After last year's 'Green Book,' 'If Beale Street Could Talk,' and more celebration of diversity in awards show winners for MLK Day 2019 to say nothing of the wins for diversity among documentaries, superhero movies, and mainstream dramas and comedies, this year's crop of Oscar nominees looks disappointing in comparison for diversity and representation.  Still, it isn't a complete bust for actors and directors of color, as Cynthia Erivo has two nominations for Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role and Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song), both for "Harriet," and Bong Joon Ho is nominated for Best Director for "Parasite," which has five more nominations, Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Achievement in Film Editing, Best Achievement in Production Design, and Best International Feature Film.  Other than Best International Feature Film, all of those awards go to individuals; Best International Feature Film goes to the country, in this case South Korea.  Unfortunately, I think Renne Zellwinger will win Best Actress, either Elton John and Bernie Taupin or Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez will win Best Original Song, and "Parasite" will win only Best International Feature Film.  Oh, well, at least the Lopezes winning for "Frozen II" would still be a victory for diversity in individual winners, even if they already have an Oscar for the original "Frozen."

That written, if the Acting Branch of the Motion Picture Academy has its way, "Parasite" would have a good shot at winning Best Picture, as it won the equivalent at last night's SAG Awards, Best Cast.  Watch Bong Joon Ho & the 'Parasite' Cast Make History at the SAG Awards from Variety.

Neon’s “Parasite” won best motion picture cast at the 26th Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday, becoming the first foreign language film to pick up the top prize. Director Bong Joon Ho and the cast answer questions backstage after their historic win.

Note that the first question was about diversity and another was about opening the U.S. to Asian films and actors.  Also, this victory sets up a different contest than the one I was anticipating in '1917' among movie and TV winners about politics and government from Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards.  I was expecting a fight between "1917" and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.”  Now "Parasite" is among the front-runners as well.  Maybe Hollywood won't vote for "a good film or show about itself."  That would be as welcome a surprise as "Moonlight" beating "La La Land."

Farther down the nomination list, the documentary and short subject nominees are a treasure trove of diversity.  Follow over the jump for their stories.

Trevor Noah on Asian countries refusing the West's recycling on America Recycles Day

Happy America RecyclesDay!  For this year's observance, I'm following up on my comment last year that "America doesn't just need to recycle more, it needs to recycle better."  I focused on one reason why in Vox explains why we're recycling wrong — Student Sustainability Video Festival 82.  Another reason involves who is processing our recycling or rather who is no longer processing our recycling.  The Daily Show with Trevor Noah explains that in If You Don’t Know, Now You Know - Asian Nations Reject Western Trash.

After years of taking in America’s plastic recycling, many Asian nations are now sending it back, forcing the U.S. to deal with its trash problem.

In addition to Noah reporting on China and other Asian nations refusing our waste, he also mentioned that Americans have to recycle more carefully and use less plastic.  I agree with both of those points, even if they're made humorously.

'One Child Nation,' 'American Factory,' 'The Kingmaker,' and 'Knock Down The House' lead Best Polical Documentary nominees at the Critics' Choice Documentary Awards

I told my readers to "stay tuned" at the end of For World Freedom Day, Vox and DW News look back at the fall of the Berlin Wall as "I plan on following up on my promise to cover this year's edition of the Critics' Choice Documentary Awards that I made in 'I Am Not Your Negro' wins Outstanding Arts & Culture Documentary at the News & Documentary Emmy Awards."  Here are the nominations for films about politics and government, beginning with relevant excerpts from the press release from the Critics' Choice Association.

The Biggest Little Farm leads this year with seven nominations, including Best Documentary Feature, John Chester for Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Score, Best Narration, and Best Science/Nature Documentary.

While this is not explicitly a movie about politics and government, it is one that I have a professional interest in.  Unlike "The End of Suburbia," which I've already replaced with "Treasures of the Earth: Power," and "An Inconvenient Truth," which I've already decided to replace with "Chasing Coral" when it comes out on DVD, "Food, Inc." is still holding up well despite being a decade old.  That written, it, too, will become obsolete one day, so I plan on watching "The Biggest Little Farm" as a possible replacement.  Welcome to blogging as professional development.

Now for the movies that really are about politics and government.

Recognized with six nominations each are Apollo 11 and They Shall Not Grow Old.

The nominations for Apollo 11 are Best Documentary Feature, Todd Douglas Miller for Best Director, Best Editing, Best Score, Best Archival Documentary, and Best Science/Nature Documentary,

The nominations for They Shall Not Grow Old are Best Documentary Feature, Peter Jackson for Best Director, Best Editing, Best Score, Best Archival Documentary, and Most Innovative Documentary.

While the Critics' Choice Association did not consider either "Apollo 11" or "They Shall Not Grow Old" as political documentaries, both are about functions of government, space exploration and the military.  In addition, they are competing directly against each other in five categories, making it a match-up between the third highest grossing political documentary of 2018 and the highest grossing documentary of 2019 (so far).  Of course, I'm rooting for "Apollo 11," especially in the Best Science/Nature Documentary category, although I think it faces stiff competition, especially from "The Biggest Little Farm."  I'm hoping both "Apollo 11" and "The Biggest Little Farm" earn Oscar nominations.  "They Shall Not Grow Old" is not eligible, as it missed the filing deadline for last year's awards and is a 2018 film.

Now for the films the Critics' Choice Association actually considered political.

One Child Nation received five nominations including Best Documentary Feature, Nanfu Wang and Jialing Zhang for Best Director, Best Editing, Best Narration, and Best Political Documentary.

Since I've written about China's now-abandoned One Child Policy, which I revisted for World Population Day, I'm very interested in this documentary.  So are my students, at least one of whom has reported on it for extra credit.  Based on the number of nominations, it's the nominal favorite for Best Political Documentary, although it faces strong competition from "American Factory," which the next passage lists.

Recognized with four nominations each are The Cave, Honeyland, American Factory, Aquarela, and Sea of Shadows.

The nominations for The Cave are Best Documentary Feature, Feras Fayyad for Best Director, Best Cinematography, and Best Score. In addition, the film received an honor for Dr. Amani Ballor for Most Compelling Living Subject of a Documentary.

The nominations for Honeyland are Best Documentary, Best Cinematography, Best First Documentary Feature, and Best Science/Nature Documentary. In addition, the film received an honor for Hatidze Muratova for Most Compelling Living Subject of a Documentary.

The nominations for American Factory are Best Documentary Feature, Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert for Best Director, Best Editing, and Best Political Documentary.

The nominations for Aquarela are Best Cinematography, Best Score, Best Science/Nature Documentary, and Most Innovative Documentary.

The nominations for Sea of Shadows are Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Score, and Best Science/Nature Documentary.

Wikipedia describes "American Factory."

"American Factory...is a 2019 American documentary film directed by Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert, about Chinese company Fuyao’s factory in Moraine, a suburb of Dayton, Ohio, that occupies Moraine Assembly, a shuttered General Motors plant.
...
David Edelstein of New York Magazine wrote: "It’s a great, expansive, deeply humanist work, angry but empathetic to its core. It gestures toward the end of the working world we know – and to the rise of the machines." Eric Kohn at IndieWire wrote that it's "A fascinating tragicomedy about the incompatibility of American and Chinese industries."

So it's not just a film about China, but about how the U.S.-China relationship plays out for the American worker.  The CoDominion strikes again!

Now for the all the nominees for Best Political Documentary, followed by the rest of their nominations and my opinion of their chances.

BEST POLITICAL DOCUMENTARY

American Factory (Netflix)

The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)

Hail Satan? (Magnolia)

The Kingmaker (Showtime)

Knock Down the House (Netflix)

One Child Nation (Amazon Studios)

Since I've already written about American Factory and One Child Nation, which I think are the favorites, I'll move on to the rest of the nominees.  The two that have the most nominations after the two leaders are also the two others with nominations for Best Documentary Feature, "The Kingmaker" about Imelda Marcos and "Knock Down the House" about AOC and three other women running for Congress in 2018.  Both have already earned honors for Most Compelling Living Subjects of a Documentary, Madame Marcos for "The Kingmaker" and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Amy Vilela, Cori Bush, and Paula Jean Swearengin for "Knock Down The House."  In addition to their nominations for Best Political Documentary both have nominations for Best Documentary Feature, while "The Kingmaker" earned a nomination for Best Biographical Documentary.

I'm glad to see my prediction for "Knock Down the House that "I'll see this movie nominated for a Best Political Documentary...at the 2018 Critics' Choice" came true.  While I don't think it will win, it's the one I'm rooting for.

As for the other nominees in this category, "The Edge of Democracy" also has two nominations, the other being for Best Narration.  Finally, "Hail Satan?" has only the one nomination in this category.  Congratulations to all the nominees and honorees in this category, even Madame Marcos.  Maybe you and Sarah Palin can compare notes on shoes.

That's it for the nominees for today's Sunday entertainment feature.  I plan on posting about the winners, which will be announced later today, either Saturday or Sunday, depending on whether I find anything useful to say about the winners of the People's Choice Awards.  In the meantime, stay tuned for this year's edition of a drum corps Veterans Day.

Tariffs on Chinese imports prompt Dollar Tree to raise prices

I opened Tariffs from the U.S.-China trade war are likely to accelerate the Retail Apocalypse by noting the effects of tariffs on prices at Dollar Tree, the parent company of Family Dollar.

I mentioned in Retail Archeology looks at Family Dollar, a tale of the Retail Apocalypse that "Dollar Tree could get into even more trouble because of the U.S.-China...trade war."

KHOU in Honolulu reported today that has indeed started to happen.  Watch Connect the Dots: Rising tariffs means rising prices at Dollar Tree.

Shopping at Dollar Tree may not cost you just a dollar for long. The chain is about to pass-on a price hike to shoppers. Lauren Talarico connects the dots.

I wrote that tariffs on Chinese goods will cause inflation, in particular increasing inflation by 0.25%.  The price increases at Dollar Tree are a foreseeable effect of the tariffs.

Now I'm done for May.  See you all in June, which is only a few hours away.

China threatens to restrict exports of rare earths

Looks like I'm not done writing about the trade war after describing its possible effects of tariffs on retail in particular and the U.S. economy in general.  Yesterday, China hinted that it might restrict exports of rare earth elements to the United States, a hint that became a threat.  This is something I've been warning my students could happen all this decade.  Here is an update of the top portion of a graph I show them every semester.


I point out that the U.S. is 100% dependent on imports of 21 minerals, chief among them rare earths, and that many of the countries that we import them from are not our friends, especially China and Russia.  Not only do I tell my students this, but I say that China in particular could cut off exports of rare earths, which would cripple our ability to make many products.  NBC News lists many of them.

If you have a smartphone or computer, own a flat-screen TV, drive a hybrid car or use a myriad of other high-tech devices, you'll no doubt come into contact with these elements — mined from the earth's crust and supplied predominantly by China — countless times a day.
...
Rare earth minerals are a crucial component of products that cut across the U.S. economy, not only in the tech sector but in the energy industry as a catalyst for oil refineries and in wind turbines, and in the automobile industry for manufacturing electric vehicle motors.
...
The elements' names, which include cerium, promethium, scandium, might sound like something out of science fiction, but each one can be used for a variety of purposes — from making magnets, batteries and lights, to glass production and the cooling of nuclear rods.

The U.S. military also depends on rare earths for the construction of equipment used in satellites, lasers, jet engines, radar and sonar systems, and other sophisticated machinery.

In other words, losing our access to China's rare earths, which supply 80% of the what the U.S. uses, would be crippling to our high-tech economy.  We would be even more dependent on Chinese finished goods that contain rare earths instead of being able to make our own.  Ironically, trying to avoid this situation is what got us into this mess in the first place, as the Chinese are using the threat of restricting exports of rare earths in retaliation for our sanctions on Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications company.

CNBC has been covering this story since it broke yesterday.  Follow over the jump for the videos.

Tariffs on Chinese goods will reduce GDP and cause inflation, say experts on CNBC

I concluded yesterday's Tariffs from the U.S.-China trade war are likely to accelerate the Retail Apocalypse by writing "it's not good for the U.S. consumer or the economy.  I'll get to that last part tomorrow.  Stay tuned."  It's tomorrow, so it's time to follow through with two videos from CNBC.

I begin with Here's what experts say about how the trade tariffs might impact the US economy.

CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the newly released forecasts and studies that have gauged the impact of new tariffs on the U.S. economy.

First, the predictions are that the tariffs will reduce U.S. GDP from 0.25% to 0.50% while increasing inflation by 0.25% (that's what 25 to 50 basis points translate to in everyday figures).  When I wrote "trade, which I haven't written enough about, is likely to be straw that breaks the camel's back of the economic expansion and that a recession is inevitable." first in I wrote about the yield curve inverting and sending another recession signal and again in MSNBC's 'Morning Joe' and CNBC's 'Fast Money' expound on the U.S.-China trade war and its fallout, that's the kind of effect I was expecting.  Second, 'will the effects of tariffs be inflationary or deflationary?  Yes.'  I had to admit, Steve Liesman's answer was funny, if depressingly true.

Now, watch as the "eminent economist" Liesman mentioned answers questions in Here's how the trade tariffs might be impacting US GDP.  He's from Oxford Economics, which produced the graph I used to illustrate this entry.

Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss how tariffs might be impacting GDP.

Liesman makes two good points about the tariffs.  First, they're the largest federal tax increase since 1993, yet very few people are objecting to them on those grounds.  I guess one can raise taxes if they're intended to hurt foreigners and not framed as increasing revenue.  If it's the latter, especially if it's a tax on income, then people start to wonder what the money will be spent on.  I haven't heard a peep about that unless it's going to the border wall.  That was about tariffs on goods from Mexico, not China.  Second, all the studies on both the inflationary and deflationary effects of the tariffs are from investment firms; there are no studies from the federal government.  Then again, it's Trump; he doesn't need data to support his ideas, just his gut.

Liesman's second point leads to ask, isn't raising taxes supposed to be the job of Congress, specifically the House of Representatives?  This is what happens when Congress cedes power to the executive branch.  Now I wonder if Congress can ever take that delegated power back.

Now for an aside about CNBC's editorial perspective related to the "perma-bull" rant I posted yesterday.  Joe Kernan's comments about taxes and government spending capital inefficiently remind me of the explicitly pro-capitalist message of the channel.  I shouldn't complain about it on an investment media outlet; it's like complaining about water being wet.  It is, however, one of the reasons why my wife doesn't like CNBC.  She's in favor of a well-regulated capitalism, while Kernan and others on the channel seem to be anti-regulation.  As for Kernan's doubts about government spending capital efficiently, I refer my readers to the following paragraphs from Allow me this rant on an anti-tax meme, which I reposted the next year.

One of the favorite anti-tax memes that conservatives use is that "the government thinks it knows better how to spend money than individuals/the people do." I think that meme has it exactly backwards. First, the government in a democratically elected government is the people. Second, what government is doing when it spends is paying salaries of people and contracts to businesses, who then pay it to people. Those people now have more money to spend than they did before. As a result, government spending gives most people more power to make decisions over how they spend their money that they got from the government.

There is one exception to the above. Progressive taxation in support of government spending shows that the government thinks it knows better how to invest money than the wealthiest Americans for the greater good. The justification for keeping the tax rates low on the wealthiest Americans is that they will use that money to create jobs. They generally don't. Instead of hiring people for their own businesses, they use that money to blow speculative bubbles, whether in stocks, bonds, commodities, or real estate. Yes, those bubbles may create jobs while they're inflating, but they destroy jobs when they pop.

I still think this way, which is why I disagree with Kernan's comments.

I end with a programming note.  I am postponing the final installment of the top posts of last year about holidays and the back catalog I promised in Shopko liquidating, a tale of the Retail Apocalypse until Friday.  I'll have more time for to write it then.  As for tomorrow's entry, stay tuned to find out.

Tariffs from the U.S.-China trade war are likely to accelerate the Retail Apocalypse

I mentioned in Retail Archeology looks at Family Dollar, a tale of the Retail Apocalypse that "Dollar Tree could get into even more trouble because of the U.S.-China...trade war."  It's more than just Dollar Tree.  It could spread to the rest of retail, as Business Insider reported last week: "China tariffs could trigger one of the biggest waves of store closures the US has ever seen, sparking the second coming of the retail apocalypse.  The trade war with China is threatening to trigger one of the biggest waves of store closures that the US has ever seen, according to UBS research."  How big?   From another Business Insider article: "Store closings are hitting record highs, and now the trade war with China is threatening to trigger an avalanche of 12,000 additional closings that could send shockwaves through the industry, according to research from UBS."  That's double the 6,000 stores that have already announced they are closing in 2019 as of April.  Yikes!

It's not just Business Insider who is sounding the alarm.  Follow over the jump for CNBC's coverage of the issue.

Retail Archeology looks at Family Dollar, a tale of the Retail Apocalypse

I concluded 6,000 stores have already announced they are closing in 2019, more than all of 2018, a tale of the Retail Apocalypse by writing "this year alone I've written about the closing down of Payless ShoeSource, Gymboree, and Charlotte Russe, all of which happened in February and March.  The year is yet young and many more stores and several chains could still go out of business."  Those three chains were top first three in the following graph that I used to illustrate that article.


Full-sized original here.
The next chain listed is Family Dollar, which is closing 390 stores and converting humdreds more into Dollar Tree stores.  I've been waiting for an opportunity to blog about it since.  Fortunately, Retail Archeology uploaded a video yesterday that asked What Is Going On With Family Dollar?  For the answer, please watch.

In this episode we take a look at Family Dollar, a discount store chain that just recently announced they will be closing hundreds of stores.

International Business Times had more details in Store Closings 2019: Full List Of Retailers Closing This Year.

Dollar Tree is also closing locations as it said that it would shut the doors at 390 Family Dollar stores in fiscal 2019. The closures are a part of Dollar Tree’s 2019 store optimization program. The company also closed 84 stores in the fourth quarter, up from the 37 planned.

By the way, Dollar Tree could get into even more trouble because of the U.S.-China and then trade war.  CNBC explains in Dollar Tree is the ‘poster child’ for tariff risk, according to Credit Suisse.

Discount retailer Dollar Tree’s core business model is a lightning rod for tariff impact, according to Credit Suisse.

With direct imports from China on 40% to 42% of its merchandise, Dollar Tree is the perfect candidate to get hit hard by the trade war, the firm said. Despite this exposure, the stock may have fallen too much too fast given there is still a good chance for a trade deal, the analyst said.
...
“Approximately 9% of products, measured by sales volume, would have been affected” when the initial 10% tariffs were implements, according to the company’s most recent 10-K filing.

Credit Suisse said Dollar Tree would undoubtedly be hit hard if the U.S. decides to further raise tariffs on a broader basket of goods including toys, greeting cards and small electronics. However, the bank stands by its 70% likelihood of a deal getting passed between the two countries, eventually reversing the latest tariffs.

I hope Credit Suisse's optimism is warranted, as I'm still of the opinion that "trade, which I haven't written enough about, is likely to be straw that breaks the camel's back of the economic expansion and that a recession is inevitable."

Speaking of optimism, while 390 stores closing looks ominous, there are "7,000 Dollar Tree locations and more than 8,000 Family Dollar locations across the country" according to CNBC, so the percentage of stores being affected is relatively small.  That's good news.

Not good news is what International Business Times reported about Shopko.

After filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, Shopko said it will close all of its store locations by June 16. The closures affect 360 stores in 26 states.

Unless something more dramatic intervenes, I know which tale of the Retail Apocalypse I'm telling next.