Halloween drinks from Tipsy Bartender

Happy Halloween, at least for those of my readers in the Western Hemisphere!*  This year, I'm marking the holiday with the five six most recent drink recipes for the holiday from the Tipsy Bartender, beginning with the first one posted, Ez-Squeeze Candy Corn Jello Shots - (Halloween).

Super easy to make Candy Corn Jello Shots!

RECIPE
=======
White Layer
1 Packet Pina Colada Ez Jello Mix
2 1/2 Cups Water
1 1/2 Cups Coconut Rum
Orange Layer
1 Packet Orange Crushed Ez Jello Mix
2 1/2 Cups Hot Water
1 1/2 Cups Butterscotch Schnapps
Yellow Layer
1 Packet Lemon Drop Ez Jello Shot Mix

Skyy, Cecilia, and Bobbi are having way too much fun in the outtakes.  I'm not embedding it, so you'll have to click on the window yourself to see it.

Follow over the jump for the other five videos, where you can enjoy both the booze and the women (and in the next to last, Skyy himself) wearing their Halloween costumes.  I also included a bonus science history lesson after the next video.

$2.89 arrived sooner than I expected

Only a day later, it's time already time to revisit the two opinions with which I opened The limbo bar drops four cents to $2.93.  First, the good news and bad news.

Today, the three stations down the street lowered their prices to $2.93.  That's a surprise, but at least it's not $2.91.  I dodged that bullet by only two cents.  I have until the end of this week to not have to eat my words on the price.  As for the corner station, it's only a matter of time before it matches the rest.

The real good news is that the corner station matched the rest at $2.93.  The weasely good news is that the other didn't lower their prices to $2.91.  The actual bad news, at least for my ability to prognosticate, is this:

As for what to expect next, GasBuddy shows the national average is still $3.03, but just barely.  The Detroit average has finally fallen below $3.00 and is now just above $2.99.  As George Takei would say, oh my!  I might see $2.89 sooner than I thought.

It arrived yesterday, as two of the stations down the street dropped their price for regular to $2.89 and for midgrade to $2.99.  My wife filled up the new car with midgrade.  Meanwhile, the sound you hear is me eating my words.

The limbo bar drops four cents to $2.93

I'm glad I didn't specify what I meant by "soon" in Gas ticks downward once more.

[T]he Detroit average is $3.01.  No wonder the local outlets dropped their prices.  Somehow, I doubt they'll go to $2.91 soon, but $2.89 sometime in the next two months looks very likely.

Today, the three stations down the street lowered their prices to $2.93.  That's a surprise, but at least it's not $2.91.  I dodged that bullet by only two cents.  I have until the end of this week to not have to eat my words on the price.  As for the corner station, it's only a matter of time before it matches the rest.

As for what to expect next, GasBuddy shows the national average is still $3.03, but just barely.  The Detroit average has finally fallen below $3.00 and is now just above $2.99.  As George Takei would say, oh my!  I might see $2.89 sooner than I thought.

Before I look at commodity prices to see what they foretell, I'm going to share this video from PBS Newshour asking What's behind the sudden drop in US gas prices?

According to AAA, the average price of a gallon of regular gas in the U.S. dropped from $3.52 in late July to $3.12 today. Isaac Arnsdorf, an energy and commodities reporter with Bloomberg News, joins Hari Sreenivasan to explain the factors contributing to the drop.

Yes, it's a week old, so the gas price data are out of date, but the analysis of what happened and what it means are still valid.

Follow over the jump for the latest in crude oil and wholesale gasoline prices from the Wall Street Journal.

Psychology of campaign ads and other election stories

It's time for the next installment of election news from campuses on the campaign trail.  I begin with an article from The Gazette of Cedar Rapids, Iowa, that I used as the top story of last Saturday's Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (Psychology of Campaign Ads) on Daily Kos.*

Psychology behind the political ads
What ads say, what ads mean and how the messages stick with us
By Erin Jordan, The Gazette
Published: October 19 2014

CEDAR RAPIDS — Television these days is filled with drama, name-calling and emotional button-pushing.

And those are just the political ads.

The Gazette asked Iowa political scientists, communications experts and psychologists to analyze the tactics used in political ads that have been blistering the Eastern Iowa airwaves. Amid the heartfelt testimonials, mudslinging attacks and goofy spots with national actors are some new strategies for 2014.

“We break down ads looking at verbals, nonverbals and video production style,” explained Dianne Bystrom, director of Iowa State University’s Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics. “Men and women running against each other have adapted styles that are very similar to one another.”

Here are some of the other findings from the article, beginning with my favorite.

Parties prioritize different values

Conservative candidates tend to play up the group mentality more than liberals, said Daryl Cameron, an assistant professor of psychology at the University of Iowa. He pointed to Ernst and other Republicans drawing attention to Braley’s gaffe of apparently criticizing veteran U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley for not having a law degree.

“Ernst is trying to push buttons by saying, ‘He (Braley) isn’t one of us, he’s betraying the group,’” Cameron said.

Liberals, on the other hand, tend to emphasize fairness and distribution of resources over other values, he said.

Yes, the major parties really are different.  ideologies and interest groups matter to American political parties, although Duverger's Law mostly limits the choices to two.

What about a factor that transcends party?

When male and female political candidates face off, they talk about a different set of issues than in male-versus-male races, Bystrom said.

Bystrom, who has been studying mixed-gender elections for U.S. Senate that have occurred since 1990, said these races traditionally have focused more on education, Social Security and health care. An all-male race might include more discussion of war and crime.

The economy, she said, has become gender neutral.

The sexes are different, too.

The article includes more findings, such as why negative ads work, how fear and disgust play a part in politics (see the video at the end of Food Fight! Thoughts on liberalism and conservatism inspired by the Preface to Food, Inc. for how these work better on conservatives), and how a dialog of sorts can be achieved with campaign ads.  It also offers this helpful note.

If the negative ads are getting you down, take heart. As we get closer to the Nov. 4 election, Iowans should see the return of the positive ads, experts said.

And after Election Day, we’ll get back to the usual commercials using psychology to sell us cars, prescription drugs and junk food.

To say nothing of getting us to buy Christmas presents.  Ah, the stink of retail desperation!

Follow over the jump for more election stories from campuses on the campaign trail.

Gas ticks downward once more

When Gas below $3.00 arrived in my neighborhood, two of the three stations down the street were at $2.99.  Shortly afterward, the rest of the stations joined them.  The corner station peeked out of its trench into No Man's Land, but raised its price to only $3.01.  By the next day, it had returned into its shelter at $2.99.  Yesterday, I noticed all the stations had lowered their price to $2.97, another record low in the history of the blog.

Speaking of low prices, GasBuddy shows that my prediction that the national average for gas would remain above $3.10 is no longer valid.  The national average is $3.03.  I knew that would happen.  Also, the Detroit average is $3.01.  No wonder the local outlets dropped their prices.  Somehow, I doubt they'll go to $2.91 soon, but $2.89 sometime in the next two months looks very likely.

Zombies, gangsters, and sideshows

I'm finally making good on one of the topics I promised last week, but copped out on when I posted World Series Music--Lorde's 'Royals' vs. They Might be Giants' 'San Francisco'--entertainment leftovers from the past month's Overnight News Digests.*

Before I serve the leftovers from campuses on the campaign trail, I present this appetizer from Cracked, which explains 4 Ways Terrible Zombie Movies Foretell the End of Society so I don't have to.

#4. Zombie Movies Explained the Horrors of Our Society ... Until They Stopped

[Z]ombie stories get me every time...[b]ecause they're a story where our monster plays like a societal problem. Zombies are an insistent and dramatically useful malevolent force you can plan against...[I]f you're facing a corrupted mob of fellow PTA members operating in ways that can be scientifically studied like a sociological phenomenon? Time to grab some guns and potable water, and find out if your personal politics are compatible with the real world.

I can't defend any non-pilot episode of The Walking Dead, but damned if their third season poster tagline doesn't sum up what makes zombie movies worthwhile. Fight the dead, fear the living, and find out what makes society work and what's killing it in the process. George A. Romero formatted the whole genre that way: an implacable zombie epidemic pushes the surviving members of society to face their racism or consumerism or municipal governing corruption, and they either survive by fixing it or die instructively.
...
#3. We're All Convinced Society Is Screwed
...
[W]hat's worse than our disagreements (and what's magnifying them) is that we're sure our only problem-fixing apparatus is broken. If Congress doesn't work, and capitalism is robbing us blind, maybe Western, free-ish market democracy doesn't work. But if we re-elect that democracy's leaders every chance we get, and we don't have any better social arrangements in mind, and our favorite new levers of change like Occupy-ing and the Internet and hashtivism don't accomplish anything ... well, shit. Are we really out of ideas?
...
#2. If We Invented a Way to Save the World, We'd Work It Into the Next Great Zombie Movie
...
Zombie fiction can work the same way. It's basically science fiction already, just instead of (or in addition to) future technology changing our lives, it has got future biocatastrophe turning us into Earth/space's rough-and-tumble badasses. And biocatastrophe is the perfect sandbox for SF-prototyping new social models.
...
#1. What's Left of Zombie Movies Casts Us as the Zombies
...
These days, every one of us is changing the world! As long as a sluggish horde of other people are in lockstep with us...[I]f anything, our undead mob is good at entertaining itself. And maybe it'll start to demand better entertainment from the artists making today's zombie epics.

I couldn't have said this better myself.  Thank you, Cracked, for showing how humor is good at telling the truth, especially these days, when the comedians are sometimes the only ones who dare to do so.

Follow over the jump for entertainment news from campuses on the campaign trail, including more on zombies.

Michigan vs. MSU--battle of the research press releases

Today is the Michigan-Michigan State game, and it doesn't look good for my alma mater.  MSU has six wins and one loss and is ranked either 5th or 8th, while Michigan is unranked with three wins and four losses.  According to the Free Press, MSU is favored by 17 points.  That's probably understating the likely magnitude of the predicted loss.  The Sagarin computer rankings at USA Today have MSU ranked 10th while Michigan is ranked 70th and indicate a likely margin of victory of 22 points.  If I were a betting man, I'd put money on MSU to beat the spread, as much as it would pain me.  Fortunately, gambling is not one of my vices.

Since the action on the football field won't favor Michigan, I'll have to pick another form of competition between the state's flagship university and its land-grant university.  I'll be a good environmentalist and recycle the concept of Research from BCS Championship universities and feature both schools' research.  Follow over the jump for the press releases of the two institutions that I orginally included in Overnight News Digest on Daily Kos during October, beginning with a sneak peek at what I'm including in today's edition.

Food news for Food Day 2014

A happy Food Day to all of my readers!  To celebrate the day,* I present a linkspam of food news, beginning with Discovery News asking Are Healthy Foods REALLY More Expensive?

Healthy foods: Are they more expensive than foods that are bad for you? Tara takes a look at some recent research that might confirm this theory.

That's a video I should show my class, especially after they've seen 'Food, Inc.'

Now for something a little less serious from Discovery News, The Surprising Benefit Of Reheating Pasta!

There's nothing better than leftover pasta, and now science has a reason to love it even more! Tara reveals some surprising evidence that cold pasta might be good for your diet!

Cool, but I'm not showing this one to my students.

Follow over the jump for food news from the past two months of Overnight News Digest on Daily Kos.

Partial solar eclipse at sunset today

For every lunar eclipse, there is a paired solar eclipse within two weeks.  Sure enough, a fortnight after the last lunar eclipse, there will be a solar eclipse today.  Science at NASA posted the original video ScienceCasts: Sunset Solar Eclipse.

On October 23rd, the Moon will pass in front of the sun, off-center, producing a partial solar eclipse visible in most of the United States.

Last I checked, that version of the video wouldn't embed.  However, its clone at Space.com on YouTube does: Partial Solar Eclipse - How To View It | Video.

Warning: Do not look directly at the Sun. On October 23rd, 2014, most of the North America will be treated to the eclipse. Viewing from the eastern U.S. will be especially beautiful, weather permitting, due to it occurring at the end of the day.

With any luck, I'll be able to see the setting sun from inside my classroom.  I hope my readers have a good view, too.

World Series Music--Lorde's 'Royals' vs. They Might be Giants' 'San Francisco'

It's time to make good on that entertainment entry I promised at least four times.  However, tonight I'm not posting about any of the topics I suggested--Gamergate, college bands doing zombie marching band shows, or entertainment leftovers from the past month's Overnight News Digests.  Instead, I'm posting music for the World Series.  Thank Vox for the inspiration: Bay area radio stations realize Lorde’s “Royals” is Kansas City-inspired, freak the hell out.

Two San Francisco radio stations have put the kibosh on Lorde's song "Royals" until the World Series is over. Baseball, apparently, is much more important than Lorde singing about having "never seen a diamond in the flesh."

That's wanky.  It's also a good excuse to play her song here.

Music video by Lorde performing Royals.

How did one of the Kansas City radio stations respond?

"We won't let their anti-Royals spirit ruin this moment," said Tony Lorino, Program Director of 99.7 The Point. "A few angry San Franciscans who don't have a song called ‘Giants' won't rain on our parade."

I don't know of any pop songs with the title "Giants," but the band They Might Be Giants has a song called "San Francisco."

From TMBGs Venue Songs "San Francisco (In Situ)" recorded live at the Fillmore. A tip of the hat to jlassen's photostream on flickr for the fine zombie photos used in this slide show presentation!

Giants fans, you can thank me later.  After all, I'm originally from California, so I'm rooting for your team.

Also, zombies!  I managed to post about a band using a zombie theme after all.

Detroit officially joins the salvage economy

In Dark Age America: The End of the Old Order, Greer wrote about the usefulness of waste in his model of catabolic collapse.*

As I pointed out in a paper published online back in 2005—a PDF is available here—the process that drives the collapse of civilizations has a surprisingly simple basis: the mismatch between the maintenance costs of capital and the resources that are available to meet those costs. Capital here is meant in the broadest sense of the word, and includes everything in which a civilizations invests its wealth: buildings, roads, imperial expansion, urban infrastructure, information resources, trained personnel, or what have you. Capital of every kind has to be maintained, and as a civilization adds to its stock of capital, the costs of maintenance rise steadily, until the burden they place on the civilization’s available resources can’t be supported any longer.

The only way to resolve that conflict is to allow some of the capital to be converted to waste, so that its maintenance costs drop to zero and any useful resources locked up in the capital can be put to other uses.

Detroit has long been neglecting the manufactured capital of its infrastructure because it has unable to maintain it, but I don't recall it actively converting the resources locked up in its neglected and obselete infrastructure--until now.  Take it away, Detroit Free Press: Detroit to make $25M from scrapping its own copper.

Detroit is turning to a source to make money post-bankruptcy: Its own supplies of copper.

The city is privatizing and decommissioning its electricity delivery services, and over the next six years expects to make at least $25 million from the sale of copper in underground and overhead electricity lines, a top financial consultant to the city testified this morning in Detroit's bankruptcy proceedings.

Note the "at least."  The same consultant thought that up to 40 million dollars could be realized from recycling all the copper that the city no longer needs.  No wonder Detroit is thinking about doing this.

Follow over the jump for more on Detroit officially joining the salvage economy.

CNN on the San Joaquin, America's most endangered river

Despite my promise at the end of Ebola news from campuses on the campaign trail and Discovery News, my readers will have to continue to "stay tuned for a delayed entertainment entry."  Tonight's entry is instead an exercise in blogging as professional development, a series of videos from CNN that I'm posting to my blog so that I can use them in this week and next.  What's the topic?  A 417-mile trip down the San Joaquin, the 'Apocalypse River.'  John Sutter writes, "I spent three weeks trying to kayak (and walk) down the “most endangered” river in America, California’s San Joaquin; I quickly learned why no one does that."

The San Joaquin is a river that would flip my boat, steal my camera, throw me into trees, take my food, tweak my muscles, acquaint me with heat exhaustion, scare the s--- out of me, trap me in the mud and leave me hiking for three days across a desert.

It even fertilized me in the middle of the night.

And that’s just the me-complaining part.

Far worse, it also deforms birds (or did, in the 1980s), taints taps, steals jobs, causes the ground to sink irreversibly, kills fish, destroys wetlands -- and harbors shady people with semi-automatic weapons.

Still, it’s somehow also a river that supports a valley that grows 40% of the nation’s fruits and some vegetables as well as more than 80% of the world’s almonds. It’s a hugely important river, but one that’s been engineered almost to death.

The rest is a great article that all of my readers should also read, but I'm interested in the videos for my classes, beginning with this one, Opinion: The 'most endangered' river.

The San Joaquin river is on life support. John D. Sutter looks at the extreme measures taken to keep the river flowing.

Follow over the jump for the rest of the videos from CNN about Sutter and what he found out in his voyage/trek down the San Joaquin River.

Ebola news from campuses on the campaign trail and Discovery News

I ended Discovery News on high-fructose corn syrup with a half-hearted promise.

That would be after an Ebola update, if I'm up for it.  Stay tuned.  Even I don't know what I'm doing next!

I wasn't up for an Ebola update last week.  Instead of following up on Michigan prepares for Ebola after Dallas patient dies, I posted Happy Canadian Thanksgiving!  It paid off, as that entry got 354 page views in 24 hours.  Today, I don't have the excuse of a holiday to avoid an update, plus I have a fair amount of material.

I begin with Northern Illinois University, which asks Ebola: Should we worry?

NIU professor: Money spent to protect U.S. from Ebola better spent in Africa

So, is there reason for concern in this country? Yes and no, say two NIU biologists and a professor of public health.

"We maybe should worry," says Neil Blackstone, a professor in the NIU Department of Biological Sciences whose field of interest is evolutionary biology.

"We don't yet have a grasp of how it got to West Africa, and the concern is that it's evolving. It's evolving to be a better human parasite than it has been, perhaps less deadly but more transmittable," Blackstone adds. "If it infects 1,000 and kills them all, that's one thing. But if it infects 1 million people and kills 10 percent of them - 100,000 - that's another."

Barrie Bode, chair of the department, similarly urges caution.

“The likelihood that we could see a pandemic here is extremely remote, but vigilance is probably advisable right now. We do have a great deal more resources here and protocols that are in place. We can easily isolate the virus and prevent its spread here,” says Bode, who studies the biology of cancer.

“In these Third World countries, it’s much more difficult because they don’t have the resources,” he adds, “and viruses are notorious for mutating. Because the human-to-human transmission rate has been so high, it gives the virus more opportunity to evolve with each subsequent infection.”

Bode and Blackstone are quick to point out that neither is an expert in infectious disease or Ebola itself. They can offer scientifically literate interpretations of the emerging epidemic, however, and are following the news closely.

Sarah Geiger, assistant professor of public health in the NIU School of Nursing and Health Studies, agrees that the possibility of a widespread Ebola outbreak in the United States remains remote.

Geiger traces some of the anxiety to modern advances in outbreak containment. “Public Health Preparedness as a sub-field has grown substantially in terms of workforce as well as funding dollars since the events of Sept. 11,” she says, “so I think as a nation we’re more aware of the value of preparedness, which can unfortunately also lead to unreasonable fear.”

However, “I do think that parts of Africa will ultimately be devastated by the virus,” Geiger says.

As I wrote in the previous update...

Once again, the message from the authorities is "Don't Panic."  One of these days I should post the cover of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy in response to these pronouncements.

One of these days has arrived.


Follow over the jump for more Ebola stories.

Discovery News on high-fructose corn syrup

I told my readers to "Stay tuned for the Sunday entertainment entry" at the end of Siding Spring and other Mars news, but that's not going to happen, at least not tonight.  Instead, I'm going to cop out and follow up to Corn questions from 'Food, Inc.' worksheet, which is at least about a movie I show my students, with this video from Discovery News: Is High Fructose Corn Syrup Really That Bad For You?

Everyone knows that high fructose corn syrup is bad for you, but how bad is it? And why is it bad for you? Trace is here to talk about artificial sweeteners.

I might have a proper entertainment entry tomorrow night.  If so, it's about equally likely that I'll tackle Gamergate, post about college bands doing zombie marching band shows, or serve up a bunch of entertainment leftovers from the past month's Overnight News Digests.  That would be after an Ebola update, if I'm up for it.  Stay tuned.  Even I don't know what I'm doing next!

Siding Spring and other Mars news

Today, Comet Siding Spring flies by Mars.  Here are the stories about the event that I included in the past two Overnight News Digests on Daily Kos.

JPL/NASA: Comet Siding Spring: A Close Encounter with Mars

Comet C/2013 A1 Siding Spring will make a very close flyby of Mars on Oct. 19, 2014. Passing at a distance of only 87,000 miles (by comparison that's little more than 1/3 the distance between Earth and our moon), it’ll be a near miss of the Red Planet. Find out how NASA’s Mars orbiters will evade the onslaught of dust particles from the comet.

Space.com via LiveScience: Comet's Mars Flyby Sunday Has Scientists Abuzz
By Mike Wall, Senior Writer
October 17, 2014 11:06am ET

A comet's close shave with Mars this weekend could reveal some key insights about the Red Planet and the solar system's early days, researchers say.

Comet Siding Spring will zoom within 87,000 miles (139,500 kilometers) of Mars at 2:27 p.m. EDT (1827 GMT) on Sunday (Oct. 19). Scientists will observe the flyby using the fleet of spacecraft at Mars, studying the comet and any effects its particles have on the planet's thin atmosphere.

"On Oct. 19, we're going to observe an event that happens maybe once every million years," Jim Green, director of NASA's planetary science division, said in a news conference earlier this month. "This is an absolutely spectacular event."

Follow over the jump for the rest of the Mars news since MAVEN at Mars from the University of Colorado, including a video and story about MAVEN.

Corn questions from 'Food, Inc.' worksheet

I concluded Corn for fuel, a story I tell my students with a program note that my students who read this blog will appreciate.

On the subject of corn, I showed "Food, Inc." to my students this week.  Stay tuned for a post about the questions about corn from my worksheet for that movie.

Follow over the jump for the questions about corn from my worksheet for Food, Inc. as well as answers to them.

Corn for fuel, a story I tell my students

I opened Biofuel crops can be good for the environment and other biofuels research with my opinion of using corn for fuel.

Normally, I'm skeptical about biofuels, but that's primarily because the main biofuel in the U.S. is corn ethanol, which I have characterized for years as an energy independence strategy, not a sustainability strategy.  It doesn't help that pretty much all the increased corn production during the past decade has gone into gas tanks.

Here's an updated version of the graph I show my students that displays how much corn goes to each purpose, including how all the growth in the crop and then some has gone into our gas tanks.


The point I make is even more clear in this graph.


The other point I make about corn ethanol is about its wastefulness.

In one of the first entries on this blog, I described "converting corn into ethanol" as "a big energy loser."

This is the figure from The Oil Drum I show my students to support my statement.


Only in the counties shaded in solid gray did corn ethanol yield more energy than it took to produce it.  In all the rest, it was a net energy loser.

Both of the above are why I think using corn grain for for ethanol fuel is a bad idea and why I am enthused about growing other crops with uses that don't compete for food and feed for biofuels.

On the subject of corn, I showed "Food, Inc." to my students this week.  Stay tuned for a post about the questions about corn from my worksheet for that movie.

Biofuel crops can be good for the environment and other biofuels research

Normally, I'm skeptical about biofuels, but that's primarily because the main biofuel in the U.S. is corn ethanol, which I have characterized for years as an energy indepence strategy, not a sustainability strategy.  It doesn't help that pretty much all the increased corn production during the past decade has gone into gas tanks.  In one of the first entries on this blog, I described "converting corn into ethanol" as "a big energy loser."  On the other hand, I followed that by writing that it would be "less of a loser if ethanol comes from cellulose in the stalks and leaves instead of the grain, as cellulosic ethanol requires less fertilizer than grain ethanol."

I'd be even more optimistic if the enthanol and other biofuels came from something other than corn.  Fortunately, two stories I included in last week's Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (Nobel Prizes 2014) on Daily Kos gave me even more reason for optimism, as they show the biofuel crops can be good for the environment even if they aren't burned for fuel.

First, Liz Ahlberg, writing for the University of Illinois, reported Bioenergy crops could store more carbon in soil.

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — In addition to providing renewable energy, grass crops like switchgrass and miscanthus could store some of the carbon they pull from the atmosphere in the soil, according to a new study by University of Illinois researchers.

The study compared soil dynamics – the ratio of carbon to nitrogen and microbial activity – of bioenergy crops with that of a standard corn-corn-soybean rotation. They found that in bioenergy crops, a certain threshold of plant matter left in the field after harvest lets much more carbon accumulate in the soil.

Led by civil and environmental engineering professor Praveen Kumar, the researchers published their findings in the journal Environmental Science and Technology.

Next, Kelly April Tyrell, writing for the University of Wisconsin passed along the good news about Balancing birds and biofuels: Grasslands support more species than cornfields.

In Wisconsin, bioenergy is for the birds. Really.

In a study published today in the journal PLOS ONE, University of Wisconsin-Madison and Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR) scientists examined whether corn and perennial grassland fields in southern Wisconsin could provide both biomass for bioenergy production and bountiful bird habitat.

The research team found that where there are grasslands, there are birds. Grass-and-wildflower-dominated fields supported more than three times as many bird species as cornfields, including 10 imperiled species found only in the grasslands. These grassland fields can also produce ample biomass for renewable fuels.

Monica Turner, UW-Madison professor of zoology, and study lead author Peter Blank, a postdoctoral researcher in her lab, hope the findings help drive decisions that benefit both birds and biofuels, too, by providing information for land managers, farmers, conservationists and policy makers as the bioenergy industry ramps up, particularly in Wisconsin and the central U.S.

Both of those are good news and make me more favorably disposed to (non-corn) biofuels.

Follow over the jump for the biofuel news from Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (Ebola in the U.S.).

Gas below $3.00 arrives in my neighborhood while oil falls

I concluded Neighborhood stations at last year's lows already by writing "gasoline below $3.00 a the local pump, here we come."  It arrived in my vicinity yesterday (today as I type this), when I saw two of the stations down the street at $2.99.  The third was at $3.03.  I don't expect that will last very long.  Meanwhile, the corner station was in the middle of retreating from a charge into No Man's Land.  Yesterday, it raised its price to $3.25 while the rest of the outlets held steady at $3.09.  I'm sure it will eventually match the other three, although it might take all week.  Even so, these are already the lowest gas prices I've recorded in the history of this blog so far.

The lower gas prices have been making news in Detroit since WXYZ noticed $3.00 gas.  WXYZ followed up on that report by asking How low will gas prices go?


Follow over the jump for a look at the local and national price environment and the commodities markets to see what they foretell, as well as what is behind the price drop.

Troy Transit Center opens

A story I've been following since 2011 has come to a happy conclusion; the Troy Transit Center opened.


That was the WXYZ preview.  The Detroit News covered the actual opening in Ceremony celebrates Troy Transit Center opening.

More than 200 people witnessed the ribbon-cutting for the new Troy Transit Center Tuesday, including Brian Smiatacz, 36, who had two kids in tow.

Four-year-old Adam, and Grace, 2, came outfitted with train engineer hats.

"They've been waiting for a year for this to open," Smiatacz said. "We were watching it get built. It took a long time for this to happen."

I've been waiting longer than that.  First, it was voted down by Troy's then Tea Party City Council in 2011.  This embroiled then-Mayor Janice Daniels in a scandal, one that led to a recall effort that was successful.*  As for the transit center, it got a second chance and was finally approved.  It faced a final hurdle, as the ownership of the land it stood on was in doubt.  I'm glad that was settled so the Troy Transit Center finally opened.

Now I can turn my attention to the construction of the M1 streetcar, the other project that got a second chance.  Here's to that story having as happy a conclusion as the transit center!

*I was rooting for the recall from the start.  I thought Daniels was trouble from the very beginning.

Election news from campuses on the campaign trail for October 14

Now that Canadian Thanksgiving is over, it's time to return to the U.S. with the election news from campuses on the campaign trail I included in Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (Nobel Prizes 2014).  I begin with this press release from the University of Illinois at Chicago: First lady makes campaign stop at UIC by Gary Wisby on October 7, 2014.

First lady Michelle Obama made a political campaign stop at UIC Tuesday, receiving a standing ovation from audience members who remained on their feet throughout her 20-minute speech at the UIC Pavilion.

Her appearance was preceded by a lineup of Illinois Democrats, including Gov. Pat Quinn, Sen. Dick Durbin, Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, Secretary of State Jesse White, Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon and Reps. Danny Davis, Jan Schakowsky and Robin Kelly.

Obama urged a robust voter turnout in the Nov. 4 Illinois elections. "Get the vote out. Start today," she said.

The First Lady stopped by Detroit three days later, as WXYZ reported in First Lady Michelle Obama visits Detroit for campaign rally.


I wouldn't be surprised if she said much the same things here as in Chicago.

That's not the only election news from Michigan.  The University of Michigan announced a Date change for the  U-M Board of Regents candidate forum on October 7, 2014.

DATE: 4 p.m. Friday, Oct. 24, 2014

EVENT: The candidates for Regent of the University of Michigan have been invited to participate in a 75-minute forum. Susan Smith, president of the League of Women Voters of Michigan, will moderate the discussion.

The four major-party candidates have confirmed their participation: Mike Behm, Rob Steele, Ronald Weiser and Regent Kathy White.

Candidate questions will be posed by the League and students at the Ford School of Public Policy. The format will allow for questions from the audience; it is not a debate.

If I were really ambitious, I'd drive out to Ann Arbor to cover the event.  Who knows, since I have a new car, I might just do so.

Follow over the jump for news from Colorado and Massachusetts.

Happy Canadian Thanksgiving!

I'm still in an "I can't be all DOOM all the time" mood, so I'm taking tonight off from writing about Ebola.  Instead, I'm going to add another holiday to the calendar here at Crazy Eddie's Motie News.

On Facebook, I've been posting that I'm going to celebrate Canadian Thanksgiving instead of Columbus Day.  It looks like I'm not alone.  Vox has an article comparing the two, Why you should celebrate Canadian Thanksgiving instead of Columbus Day, that pretty much sums up why I feel this way.

Celebrating genocidal maniacs is never fun, and even less so when it's on the false pretenses of a discovery that they didn't quite make. So here's a better idea: on Monday, celebrate Canadian Thanksgiving instead!

I don't mind celebrating Thanksgiving twice.  Do you?

WBLK in Buffalo made the same suggestion last year and embedded the following video to enliven its post.


Believe it or not, that was the least silly of all the videos I found on the holiday.  Here's to hoping someone posts a more serious one by the 12th next year.  Otherwise, I'll feel like I should have posted this for today.

Musical zombies, animal zombies, smartphone costumes, and haunted houses

I finished Happy Wester 2014 with a program note that was also a promise.

Stay tuned for my Sunday entertainment entry.   Not only is it Wester, it's the season premiere of "The Walking Dead." There be zombies ahead!

WXYZ made it easy for me, as the station posted three videos on its YouTube channel about entertainment options in Metro Detroit for Halloween and the weeks leading up to it.

Since I promised zombies, I begin with Evil Dead the Musical.


Yes, folks, a comedy zombie musical.  It's not just marching bands getting in on the trend.*

Follow over the jump for the other two clips about Halloween along with a bonus footnote about Animal Planet making a zombie TV series.  Yes, really.

Happy Wester 2014

Time to be a good environmentalist and recycle.

Adapted from my original 2007 post: Happy Wester Everyone!

Yes, you read that correctly--I wish you all a happy Wester!  What is Wester?  Well, it's the mirror image of Easter, which is celebrated on the first Sunday after the first Full Moon after the Vernal Equinox.   Therefore, Wester is the first Sunday after the first Full Moon after the Autumnal Equinox, which is today (or tomorrow if you're in the Rocky Mountain, Pacific, and Alaskan/Hawaiian Time Zones of North America).  In the northern states of the U.S. and the southern parts of the Canadian Provinces, it is usually one of the last days of pleasant weather before the full chill of Autumn descends.  As such, it's a good excuse to enjoy summer activities outdoors one last time.

Although I'm probably the first person to wish any of you Wester (correct me if I'm wrong, as I'd like more documentation), I did not come up with the idea.  It originated in Berkeley, California, during the 1980s, and the  message was brought to Michigan by my colleague Tim Pearce.  Tim invited  me to a Wester party in 1991 and explained the holiday to me.  The  party was a blast, and I've been eternally grateful to him for introducing me to the concept.  Therefore, I am sharing this meme with you.

One last time, Happy Wester!

In case you're wondering why the squirrel, thank one of my readers.

Wayne Freeman: So, if Easter has the Easter Bunny, who comes around and brings goodies, does the Wester Squirrel go around and gather goodies?

Me: The Wester Squirrel? I like that! Thanks to you, the holiday has a new mascot!

Stay tuned for my Sunday entertainment entry.   Not only is it Wester, it's the season premiere of "The Walking Dead."  There be zombies ahead!

LED news from the University of Michigan

This week, the inventors of the blue LED won the Nobel Prize for Physics.  It just so happened that the University of Michigan announced an improvement in the technology last month: Live long and phosphor: Blue LED breakthrough for efficient electronics.

ANN ARBOR—In a step that could lead to longer battery life in smartphones and lower power consumption for large-screen televisions, researchers at the University of Michigan have extended the lifetime of blue organic light emitting diodes by a factor of 10.

Blue OLEDs are one of a trio of colors used in OLED displays such as smartphone screens and high-end TVs. The improvement means that the efficiencies of blue OLEDs in these devices could jump from about 5 percent to 20 percent or better in the near future.

Congratulations to both the winners of the Nobel Prize for their discovery and to the researchers at U of M for making it even better.  Also, I'm looking forward to more discussions about the practicality and esthetics of LED streetlights.

The science of peanut allergies

Once again, I'm in an "I can't be all DOOM all the time" mood.  Fortunately, I collected three stories for Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (Ebola in the U.S.) on a common theme that suits my mood, the science of peanuts, particularly peanut allergies.

First, Discovery News asks Why Are Peanut Allergies Becoming So Common?

Peanut allergies are becoming more and more common, and researchers are trying to find the cause. Trace is here to discuss this unique allergy, and how we might have finally found a cure.

Discovery News cited a University of Florida study about one of their scientists working on eliminating the source of the problem.  Here's the press release: UF/IFAS researcher continues quest for peanut that won't cause allergic reaction.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. --- A University of Florida scientist has moved one step closer to his goal of eliminating 99.9 percent of peanut allergens by removing 80 percent of them in whole peanuts.

Scientists must eliminate peanut allergens below a certain threshold for patients to be safe, said Wade Yang, an assistant professor in food science and human nutrition and member of UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.

If Yang can cut the allergens from 150 milligrams of protein per peanut to below 1.5 milligrams, 95 percent of those with peanut allergies would be safe. It’s challenging to eliminate all peanut allergens, he said, because doing so may risk destroying peanuts’ texture, color, flavor and nutrition. But he said he’s using novel methods like pulsed light to reach an allergen level that will protect most people.

Looks like good news, but no Professor Farnsworth yet.

Peanut allergies weren't the only topic covered in last week's Science Digest on Daily Kos.  Follow over the fold for a press release from the University of Georgia on how to convert peanut skins from waste into a useful product.

Neighborhood stations at last year's lows already

I was dead wrong at the end of WXYZ notices $3.00 gas.

When I drove past this evening, it was at $3.15.  Based on the Detroit average rising to a dozen cents higher, I don't expect any more price drops locally this week.  Prices might actually go back up to $3.19 if they do anything at all before resuming their slide down.

I was wrong not once, but twice.  Thursday, all the neighborhood stations lowered their price for regular to $3.13.  This afternoon, all of the had dropped their price for regular down to $3.09.  Of course, my prediction was based on the Detroit average price holding.  It didn't.

GasBuddy shows the national average sliding off the $3.27 shelf to $3.25 while the Detroit average fell off its temporary peak to $3.22.  The neighborhood average is once again more than a dozen cents lower than the metro mean.  Not only does this mean that gas prices in the immediate vicinity are 28 cents lower than at this time last year when they were at $3.37, but they are as low all four together reached all last year, when they hit $3.09 first in November, then in December.  That's still five cents above the $3.04 the corner station hit briefly last November, but the other stations didn't match it before it charged into No Man's Land.  This year, I'm pretty sure that all four stations will go at least that low.

As an aside, the corner station has once again increased the premium it charges for midgrade over regular.  Before this week, the difference was 15 cents.  Now it's 19 cents.  As Jack Sparrow would say, that's interesting, that's very interesting.

Follow over the jump for the latest from Reuters on oil and CNBC on gasoline futures to see if prices will continuing falling below $3.04.

Michigan universities on buying cars

In Driving update for September 2014: Ruby, I lamented the fate of my old car.

Yuki may not reach that milestone, at least not with me driving her.  My wife and I are shopping for another car, and Yuki will likely be the one traded in.  Sigh.  That will deserve a post of its own when that happens, along with the story of how buying Ruby was the fulfillment of a promise I made to my students.  Later.

We've bought the new car, but I didn't trade in Yuki, at least not yet.  I'll write Yuki's farewell when I either sell her or trade her in.  Until then, I have stories from both the University of Michigan and Michigan State University about buying cars.

First, the University of Michigan reported Increased interest in hybrids among non-hybrid owners on October 2, 2014.

ANN ARBOR—Current owners of hybrid vehicles are very satisfied with them and most will buy a hybrid again, say University of Michigan researchers.

And nearly a third of non-owners plan to purchase a hybrid for their next vehicle.

Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle of the U-M Transportation Research Institute surveyed about 1,000 current owners of hybrids (94 percent own non-plug-ins and 6 percent own plug-ins) and another roughly 1,000 car owners who don't drive hybrids.

They found that 83 percent of hybrid owners plan to buy another one for their next vehicle (a third of these drivers intend to purchase a plug-in car). Another 3 percent of all hybrid owners plan to buy a fully electric vehicle, instead.

Hybrid cars accounted for less than 4 percent of all light-duty vehicle sales last year, the researchers say. However, it was the highest percentage (3.8) and the second straight year of rising sales for hybrids.

Environmental impact was the most important reason cited by owners for buying a hybrid (33 percent), followed by long-term costs (28 percent) and less energy use (25 percent).

"Females tended to be more concerned than males about the environmental impact," Sivak said.

Among non-hybrid owners, 31 percent intend to buy a hybrid for their next vehicle. Although a third of drivers are not considering hybrids at all, more than half of them would reconsider, especially if the initial costs were lower.

Before last week, I wouldn't have answered that I was going to buy a hybrid.  The car that was bought was my wife's choice and she wasn't in the market for a hybrid.  Now that we have bought a car, I'd probably say yes.  I would like the next car to be a hybrid or all-electric vehicle (the Volt counts as one, as it has an all-electric drive train with a gas-powered generator, not a motor; a true hybrid has both electric and internal combustion drive trains).  It will make up for the new car having lower gas mileage than Yuki.

Speaking of lower gas mileage, follow over the jump for the latest on the mileage of cars purchased in the U.S. as well as how parents influence the car-buying choices of their offspring.

Michigan prepares for Ebola after Dallas patient dies

What I feared would happen when I posted the previous Ebola update has occured, the Dallas patient died of the disease.  The reactions to his death have been felt here in Michigan.  WXYZ reports Airports asked to monitor incoming passengers for signs of Ebola


In an earlier video, WXYZ reported that Oakwood Hospital in Romulus could handle up to 50 Ebola cases.  They're serious about this disease and their role in containing.

Ellen Creager of the Detroit Free Press has much the same story in Metro Airport travelers to face new Ebola measures.

The deadly Ebola virus scare will impact every international passenger arriving on international flights into Detroit Metro Airport and other American airports, the government announced Wednesday.

All passengers will closely be observed for signs of illness and given information about Ebola symptoms as they pass through customs and immigration.

In addition, the temperatures of passengers will be taken by CDC officials as they arrive from West Africa into five airports -- New York's JFK, Washington Dulles, Chicago O'Hare, Newark and Atlanta, the White House announced.

The measures to protect the American public took on new urgency Wednesday with the death of Liberian Ebola patient Thomas Eric Duncan in Dallas.

It looks like the inertia of business as usual that I observed in First Ebola case diagnosed in the U.S. has finally given way to appropriate levels of vigilance.

Preparations are also happening on the west side of the state, as WOOD-TV reports in Ebola: Should West Michigan be concerned?

Adam London of the Kent County Health Department says we're not scared about Ebola here in West Michigan, but we are prepared.

Once again, the message from the authorities is "Don't Panic."  One of these days I should post the cover of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy in response to these pronouncements.  However, London is right to put this outbreak in perspective by comparing it to the flu.  That reminds me, I need to get my flu shot.

WXYZ notices $3.00 gas

In Corner station challenged to limbo, I quoted a Detroit Free Press on the low gas prices.  Today, WXYZ followed suit with Gas in metro Detroit under $3 per gallon.


I can remember when it was last below $3/gallon here in Detroit.  It was the end of November 2010, four years ago.  I don't have to remember that on my own; GasBuddy showed that to me.

Also, the concern that prices might rise is well-founded.  The national average has landed on a shelf at $3.27 while the Detroit average has actually gone up slightly to match it.  That hasn't happened here yet, as my prediction came true.

The next drop happened yesterday, when the three stations down the street lowered their prices to $3.15.  The corner station is still at $3.19, but I'm sure it's only a matter of time before they meet the challenge.

When I drove past this evening, it was at $3.15.  Based on the Detroit average rising to a dozen cents higher, I don't expect any more price drops locally this week.  Prices might actually go back up to $3.19 if they do anything at all before resuming their slide down.

Corner station challenged to limbo

It was only Sunday when I posted Limbo cat says "meow-whee!" as prices fall.

Today, all four neighborhood outlets had dropped their price another dime to $3.19.  I might have expected prices that low next week, but not this week and especially not at the start of the week.  Good thing I just said prices would fall, not how far or how soon.

The next drop happened yesterday, when the three stations down the street lowered their prices to $3.15.  The corner station is still at $3.19, but I'm sure it's only a matter of time before they meet the challenge.

The Detroit Free Press has noticed the drop, but before I quote what they had to say, I'm checking the price environment and the year-over-year changes.  First, GasBuddy shows the Detroit average falling from $3.32 to $3.26, sinking right past $3.29 on Monday.  I called it when I wrote "By tomorrow or the day after, I wouldn't be surprised if the Detroit average fell to $3.29, making the neighborhood stations in line with the pattern."  Just the same, the three stations are still more than a dime cheaper than the metro average, keeping them ahead of the curve.  They must really expect prices to continue falling.

Before I leave the subject of GasBuddy and the price environment, here's what I wrote about the national average.

[It] shows the national average at just above $3.30.  That makes a prediction I posted in Fear premium a dead cat bounce as price falls three times in five days look good.

The longer-range forecast is still for lower prices.  For example, Calculated Risk trumpeted EIA Forecast: Gasoline Prices expected to decline to $3.30 per gallon in December last week.  I'd be surprised if it took that long for the national average to go that low.

We're almost there.

The national average plunged through that level on Monday and is now at $3.27.  We made it.

Next, prices are now twelve cents below where they were last year on this date, when they were selling regular for $3.27.  I expected lower prices year-over-year, but not this much.

Follow over the jump for the Free Press on Michigan gas prices and Bloomberg on crude oil.

Lunar eclipse and October sky events

There is a total lunar eclipse tonight, the second of four eclipses that form a tetrad, a phenomenon I first mentioned in Gravity waves from the Big Bang and other space and astronomy news this past March.  As I did in that entry, a video from Science at NASA explains what's happening: ScienceCasts: A Colorful Lunar Eclipse.

Mark your calendar: On Oct. 8th, the Moon will pass through the shadow of Earth for a total lunar eclipse. Sky watchers in the USA will see the Moon turn a beautiful shade of celestial red and maybe turquoise, too.

That's not the only noteworthy celestial event this month.  Follow over the jump for videos from JPL and Hubble Space Telescope listing the rest in addition to tonight's eclipse.

More good economic news from Colorado and Florida

I wasn't done with good economic news from the perspective of Business as Usual (BAU).  Here are two stories I originally included in Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (Ebola in the U.S.) on Daily Kos over the weekend that also trumpet "Good news, everyone!"  Yeah, enjoy it while it lasts.

University of Colorado: Colorado business confidence dips but remains positive to finish year, says CU-Boulder Leeds School
October 1, 2014

The confidence of Colorado business leaders continues to be positive heading into the fourth quarter and has moderately increased compared with a year ago, according to the most recent Leeds Business Confidence Index (LBCI) released today by the University of Colorado Boulder’s Leeds School of Business.

It’s not as bullish, however, as it was a quarter ago with slight drops across the board resulting in a current overall reading of 59.5, down from 61.2 heading into the third quarter of 2014.

“I wouldn’t put too much concern in a slight dip in the numbers,” said economist Richard Wobbekind, executive director of the Leeds School’s Business Research Division, which conducts the LBCI. “Last year and this year, we’re growing at the fastest rate in terms of employment growth that we’ve seen since the year 2000, so we’re really on a very, very strong growth rate for jobs year over year.”

University of Florida: UF: Florida's September consumer sentiment reaches post-recession high
September 30, 2014

GAINESVILLE, Fla. --- Floridians’ consumer sentiment this month reached its highest level since before the Great Recession began and after it ended, according to a monthly University of Florida survey. The index inched up one point from August to 83 -- a level not seen since April 2007.

“This is a welcome development given that consumer sentiment has been flat for the last few months,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center in the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “While we are still about 10 points behind where we would like to be at this point in a recovery, confidence among Floridians is heading in the right direction.”

The small rise, which parallels an uptick in confidence nationwide, was broad-based among all ages and income levels. Of the five components that comprise the survey, two rose, two declined and one remained unchanged.

Yes, I'm in an "I can't be all DOOM all the time" mood right now.  I also know that these aren't business as usual times.  I hope posting the above gets the unwarrented optimism out of my system.

On American political parties held captive by their interest groups and ideologies

In the comments to Dark Age America: The End of the Old Order, Purple Tortoise asked the following.

Given the widespread obvious discontent, I have been surprised to see that no mainstream politician has really gone for grabbing the populist center and run on reining in the banks, restricting offshoring and immigration, and ceasing involvement in foreign wars. It seems like it would have been a great vote-getter to me. What am I missing?

Tortoise was quite obviously playing with Greer's idea that fascism is a totalitarianism that grows out of a disenfranchised center, a topic I elaborated on in The Archdruid on Fascism, part 2.  Neither Greer nor anyone else answered him directly for five days, so I decided to chime in.

What you're missing is that none of the top four parties in this country will support that combination of positions. Each party will support some or even most of them, but will find at least one of them anathema, so there is no home for that platform among them.

The Republican Party won't consider reining in the banks or ceasing intervention in foreign wars; the closest one got to those positions in the GOP was Ron Paul, who was interested in "Ending the Fed," but I don't know what he thinks about other big banks. I don't recall his son Rand continuing that policy. Both are still anti-interventionist, and both make the mainstream power brokers in their party furious. Note that Ron Paul didn't even get as far as either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich in the 2012 primaries. [His son Rand] is going to have an uphill fight getting through them in 2016 as well.

The Democratic Party won't support strong restrictions on immigration; they're having enough trouble on illegal immigration. Restrictions on immigration would be considered an expression of racism, and the Democrats include racial and ethnic minorities in their coalition, some of whom would be most displeased by an anti-immigrant stance.

The Libertarians would find restrictions on the banks, outsourcing, and immigration against their principles. The party actually advocates for open borders for both money and people.

The Greens might go for restricting immigration except that they don't want to be seen as racist, either. Since being pro-redistribution and anti-racist are both Left positions, it's hard to be anti-immigrant and be seen as Left in the U.S. these days.

The largest party in the U.S. who might be for all those things is the Constitution Party. Any politician in that group who can wrap those ideas in a flag while carrying a cross will get away with them. Pity the party is the personification of amateur hour in politics.

Neither Purple Tortoise nor Greer had anything to say about my comment, but they had the excuse that it was approved on Wednesday morning, and Greer and all of his readers were probably already looking forward to his next essay.

Just the same, consider Purple Tortoise's question and my response an explanation of why, despite Duverger's Law working, people are frustrated by the major parties and may not even be able to find a fit in the minor parties.  Not all possible combinations of positions can be accomodated within them, so those who do have those collections of views have no one to represent them.  Getting rid of the current two major parties won't solve that problem.

Ebola update--Dallas patient worsening, containment, and false alarms

With Sunday over, it's time to follow upon the first Ebola case diagnosed in the U.S.  This time, ABC News leads this entry, just as they led This Week with the story.  Their report, Ebola Scare: Dallas on Edge, included the first images I've seen of the victim.

ABC News' Ryan Owens reports on the effort to contain the first case of Ebola diagnosed on U.S. soil. Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings weighs in on his city's response.

I'll have more of ABC News' coverage, which I found wide and sensationalistic, over the jump.  For a calmer and narrower perspective, Reuters reported Ebola patient in Dallas struggling to survive, says CDC head, which was the most popular article on their site tonight.

The first person diagnosed with Ebola in the United States was fighting for his life at a Dallas hospital on Sunday and appeared to be receiving none of the experimental medicines for the virus, a top U.S. health official said.

Thomas Eric Duncan became ill after arriving in the Texas city from Liberia two weeks ago, heightening concerns that the worst Ebola epidemic on record could spread from West Africa, where it began in March. The hemorrhagic fever has killed at least 3,400 people out of the nearly 7,500 probable, suspected and confirmed cases.

"The man in Dallas, who is fighting for his life, is the only patient to develop Ebola in the United States," Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said on CNN's "State of the Union."

In a media briefing with reporters on Sunday, Frieden said he was scheduled to brief President Barack Obama on Monday.

Reuters also captured Frieden on video in CDC: Dallas Ebola patient "taken a turn for the worse."

Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the CDC, says the first patient diagnosed with Ebola in the U.S. has "taken a turn for the worse."

Follow over the jump for more from ABC News and Reuters plus a local scare reported by WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids and an analysis from The Guardian.

Limbo cat says "meow-whee!" as prices fall

I finished Gas price resistance broken! with a very general prediction.

WTI could go up another dollar, but between the lower price for RBOB and the usual seasonal decline, the retail price of gas is still headed lower.  Stay tuned.

I had no idea how right I would be and how soon.  Today, all four neighborhood outlets had dropped their price another dime to $3.19.  I might have expected prices that low next week, but not this week and especially not at the start of the week.  Good thing I just said prices would fall, not how far or how soon.

It's still Sunday, so I have nothing new to report as far as crude oil or RBOB gasoline, but I can check GasBuddy to see if this price is in line with the usual pattern.  The answer is that it's low, as the Detroit average is $3.32.  Usually, it would have been a dime cheaper at $3.22.  Falling all the way to $3.19 is a bit ahead of the curve, but that's happened before and turned out to be right.  By tomorrow or the day after, I wouldn't be surprised if the Detroit average fell to $3.29, making the neighborhood stations in line with the pattern.

For what it's worth, prices are now eight cents below where they were last year, when they were selling regular for $3.27 on this date, instead of just two cents.  That's consistent with the year-to-year difference the past couple of months.

Also, GasBuddy shows the national average at $3.32 (that was the Detroit average) just above $3.30. That makes a prediction I posted in Fear premium a dead cat bounce as price falls three times in five days look good.

The longer-range forecast is still for lower prices.  For example, Calculated Risk trumpeted EIA Forecast: Gasoline Prices expected to decline to $3.30 per gallon in December last week.  I'd be surprised if it took that long for the national average to go that low.

We're almost there.  As for the other prediction I included in that entry...

Last December, I predicted a floor of $3.10 for the national average this year.  It could go that low.  I also predicted a ceiling of $3.80.  So far, Gas Buddy has shown that prediction standing, although there are two more months left in the hurricane season for a price spike and events in Ukraine and Iraq could still revive the fear premium, so I'm not declaring victory yet.

I think I have a 95% probability of the price ceiling holding, barring Ebola having a perverse effect of causing prices to rise because of oil shipments stopping and that being stronger than the economy slowing down.  I rather doubt that will happen enough in the next two months.  As for the national average staying above $3.10, that's still uncertain.  Stay tuned.

Examiner.com article on voter registration deadline

Deadline to register for November election is Monday, October 6

While the next elections in Michigan are a month away, the deadline to register to vote is tomorrow.

All those who wish to vote on November 4, 2014, must be registered to vote by Monday, October 6, 2014.  Michigan residents can find out if they are already registered by filling out the online form at the Secretary of State website.  However, if one has moved to a new city or township, one must re-register.  Also, if one has moved from one residence to another within a city or township, one must update the address.  Normally, that happens when the address on a driver's license is changed at the Secretary of State's office.

Those who are not yet registered can obtain applications to register to vote can be obtained at Secretary of State branch office, a local county, city, or township clerk's office, and online at the Secretary of State's website.

All jurisdictions in the county are voting for federal, state, and county offices.  In fact, the entire state is voting on federal and state offices and statewide ballot measures.  Make sure you're registered.  If you're not, register.  Then vote in November.  Your democracy within a republic is counting on you!

Star Wars: Zombies of The Old Republic

I concluded Georgia and Florida give love to the reptiles with this look ahead.

[S]tay tuned for my Sunday entertainment entries.  There will be DOOM in them, I promise!

It's time to follow through.

With the arrival of Ebola in the U.S. and the arrival of zombie shows like "Z Nation" last month and "The Walking Dead" this month (for dates and synopses, see The Ultimate Guide to this Fall's Science Fiction and Fantasy TV!), I remembered that even Star Wars includes a zombie plague in a post-apocalyptic setting.  Fans of only the movies wouldn't know this, but those who play the Bioware video games set during the Old Republic era know exactly what I'm writing about.  For those of my readers who don't, the planet is Taris and the zombies are Rakghouls.  Follow over the jump for my observations on "the zombies of the Old Republic" and the planet on which they are found.

Georgia and Florida give love to the reptiles

I'm still in something of an "I can't be all DOOM all the time" mood, so here is some good news about reptile biodiversity from the University of Georgia and the University of Florida that I first published on Daily Kos.

First, the stories I included in Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (Solar storm and aurora), beginning with University of Georgia: University of Georgia, Orianne Society form partnership for research, conservation.

Athens, Ga. - An international nonprofit organization dedicated to the conservation of imperiled reptiles and amphibians has partnered with the University of Georgia to collaborate on conservation efforts for these species and their habitats.

The Orianne Society, a worldwide conservation organization, is now working with researchers from UGA's Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources on several projects that focus on the conservation of reptiles and amphibians and their habitats. Mike Clutter, dean of the Warnell School, said that by combining resources, UGA and the Orianne Society are able to collaborate more effectively on a global conservation initiative.

"We both have a serious and sincere interest in the conservation of these species," he said.

Follow over the jump for examples of the Bulldogs' efforts to save endangered species of turtles along with the University of Florida working with crocodilians.

Bees and broccoli--two stories I tell my students

I opened Racetrack Playa, a story my students tell me by noting the links and excerpts in the diary reinforced my teaching.

Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (Blair Mountain and Labor Day) on Daily Kos contained articles about a story I tell my students and a story my students tell me.

I then told the story my students tell me. It's time to tell the story I tell my students and note that there were actually two of them.

The first is one that I have already mentioned here, the importance of honeybees, first in Discovery News and PhysOrg on colony collapse disorder, the Discovery News video in which I show to my classes, and then in More bad news for bees, some of the findings of which I mention to my students as well.  The University of Arizona repeats this theme in Your Secret Food Supplier: The Humble Honeybee By Shelley Littin on August 28, 2014.

Honeybees play a vital, behind-the-scenes role in Arizona's agricultural industry.

The next time you tuck into a salad, thank a honeybee.

"Honeybees are responsible for pollinating agricultural crops that make up one-third of our diet, including fruits and vegetables. They're the cornerstones of heart-healthy and cancer prevention diets," says Gloria DeGrandi-Hoffman, an adjunct professor in the Department of Entomology in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at the University of Arizona and a research leader at the Carl Hayden Bee Research Center in the Agricultural Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

"We're the honeybee nutrition lab," DeGrandi-Hoffman said. "Humans are healthier when we have good nutrition and so are bees. We study the effects of malnutrition on bees, including the effects of fungicides and pesticides and how they alter the ability of bees to acquire nutrients from flower nectar."

The lab also looks at the role of microbes in the ability of bees to digest their food and acquire nutrients from it.

In the spirit of a picture being worth 1000 words, here's a graphic that illustrates DeGrandi-Hoffman's point.


Follow over the jump for a story that I've told my students many times, but haven't recounted here until now.

Gas price resistance broken!

I was right to proclaim "The price resistance will be broken" in Gas prices return to their lows for the summer.  Yesterday, the three stations down the street hit the $3.29 I'd been expecting as the next step down from $3.32.  The corner station resisted until this morning, when it also lowered its price from $3.35 to $3.29.  However, it was already behind the rest of the neighborhood outlets, who dropped their price again to $3.25.  By this evening, the corner station matched the rest at $3.25.  That means I was both right and wrong when I wrote "I expect that this time it will match the prices of the rest instead of balking or charging into No Man's Land as it has before" and "the neighborhood outlets could conceivably still reduce their price for regular to $3.29, but not any lower"--right because they reduced their price to $3.29 and the corner station matched them, wrong because I didn't think they'd go lower this week.  Still, it's the kind of wrong I enjoy being, as the lower price is good news.  Also, it means that prices are still lower a year earlier, when the neighborhood outlets were all selling for $3.27.

As for how wrong I was to predict a price no lower than $3.29 this week, I'm only as good as my data.  Speaking of which, GasBuddy shows that the Detroit average declined from $3.38 as of the last entry on the local gas price war to $3.35.  Given that information, the neighborhood stations are right on target at a dime cheaper than the metro area.  Also, the national average finally fell through the price support level of $3.33 it had been bouncing off for two weeks and is now at $3.32.  Hey, the local prices are below the national average!  More good news!

Follow over the jump for what Reuters and the Wall Street Journal had to say about crude oil and wholesale gasoline.

Good economic news from Michigan universities

Once again I'm in an "I can't be all DOOM all the time" mood, so I'll recycle the concept behind Good economic news from Michigan and elsewhere from last May and post some good news from the perspective of business as usual, complete with the second appearance of Professor Farnsworth in a row.

I begin with this item from the University of Michigan that I first posted in Overnight News Digest: Science Saturday (MAVEN at Mars) on Daily Kos: Consumer sentiment strengthens in September.

ANN ARBOR—Consumer confidence posted a healthy gain in September due to more favorable prospects for the domestic economy as well as more favorable personal income expectations, according to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The September reading, the second highest in the last seven years, points toward renewed strength in consumer spending. Conducted by the U-M Institute for Social Research since 1946, the Surveys monitor consumer attitudes and expectations.

While the September rebound brought confidence back to its highest levels since the Great Recession, confidence has repeatedly failed to move above this level, according to Richard Curtin, director of the surveys.

Note that it's not unalloyed good news; consumer confidence just won't move above a ceiling.  That's probably a good thing, as these are not business as usual times and the public probably senses that.

Next, something I'll post in this weekend's Overnight News Digest from Wayne State University: Economic expansion continues as Southeast Michigan Purchasing Managers Index climbs to 59.4.

DETROIT— Reflecting an on-going confidence and enthusiasm for the economy, the Southeast Michigan Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September is 59.4, up from 54.8 in August.  A PMI value above 50 generally suggests economic growth.

“Significant increases in both the Production (61.4) and New Orders (65.7) indices contributed to the uptick in the PMI, and are promising indicators of continuing growth, said Nitin Paranjpe, a supply chain faculty member at Wayne State’s School of Business, who interpreted this month’s results.  It’s also interesting to note that though the Employment Index dropped from 60.3 in August, to 54.3 in September, its three-month average is very strong at 59.3.”

Almost 90 percent of respondents believe the Southeast Michigan economy will remain stable or become more stable over the next six months.

My response to all of the above is to enjoy it while it lasts.  After all, the first Ebola case diagnosed in the U.S. caused the stock market to tank on Wednesday and Thursday's trading was characterized by Reuters as Wall St. ends flat, small caps rebound in volatile day.  See, I'm already out of my "I can't be all DOOM all the time" mood, which makes me perversely pleased with myself.