A blog about societal, cultural, and civilizational collapse, and how to stave it off or survive it. Named after the legendary character "Crazy Eddie" in Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle's "The Mote in God's Eye." Expect news and views about culture, politics, economics, technology, and science fiction.
It’s another episode of Confidence Interval, where we make a persuasive case for a hot take we’ve been hearing … and then reveal how confident we really feel about the idea. This time, we talk about celebrity politicians. FiveThirtyEight politics reporter Alex Samuels explains the rise in the number of celebrities running for political office and argues whether or not they will be successful.
As one of the commenters snarked, I'd bet $20 on the confidence interval response being "I'd bet $20 on this," as it has probably been a more common response than "it makes sense" or "meh." More seriously, celebrities running for office happens often enough to be worth noting. As Alex Samuels mentioned, Caitlyn Jenner is running for Governor of California in the upcoming recall election and Andrew Yang, arguably a celebrity, is running for Mayor of New York City. On the other hand, some candidacies end up being mere publicity stunts, such as Kid Rockfor U.S. Senate. That's what I think Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson is doing. Matthew McConaughey seems to be more serious, but I don't think he'll get very far if Beto O'Rourke runs for Texas Governor.
The former Texas congressman says he hasn't ruled anything out.
I think Beto will push McConaughey out of the Democratic primary should he run, leaving McConaughey to try to win the Republican primary (good luck with that), mount an independent bid, or drop out and enjoy the free publicity. I'd bet $20 on the last option.
Instead, it was just over a week later. About time! Seven down, two to go from FiveThirtyEight's second drop out draft in November, although I think Tom Steyer is more likely to drop out soon than Amy Klobuchar, who finished third in New Hampshire and will probably last until Super Tuesday.
In contrast to the messy Iowa caucus, the New Hampshire primary produced clear-cut results. And while they weren't good for Joe Biden's campaign, the Granite State vote tally meant the end of the road for Andrew Yang, Michael Bennet and Deval Patrick.
FuryRoad to the White House? That's a good idea, but I still like TheHungryforPowerGames better. In any event, three candidates are now eliminated from the campaign, at least until one of them gets chosen for a running mate. That's five months off.
Follow over the jump for the drink suggestions and memes I'm retiring now that all three have suspended their campaigns.
I interrupt my continuing coverage of the impeachment story arc of "TheWorstWing" for the latest on theDoomsdayClock, which The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moved yesterday to 100 seconds to midnight, the least remaining time ever, so far.
Australia's ongoing bushfire crisis is driving up global carbon dioxide levels according to a UK climate report.
Carbon dioxide is a key measuring stick in scientific projections of global warming.
And the outlook doesn't look good, with a panel of world scientists and leaders saying we're closer than ever to doomsday.
Randolph Nogel reports.
The Australian wildfires are projected to contribute one-fifth of the increase in carbon dioxide this year? Wow! That's an example of a positive feedback loop and those usually lead to catastrophes.
ABC Australia's clip served well as a reaction to this year's announcement. News.com.au uploaded Doomsday Clock: Apocalypse fears over nuclear weapons and climate change yesterday, summarizing the history of the Doomsday Clock and placing the recent movement of the hands of the clock in context.
The Doomsday Clock is now 100 seconds to midnight with scientists blaming nuclear weapons and climate change for the jump forward.
As I mentioned above, the Australians seem to jumping on this news because of the climate change dimension; I've never seen them this interested in the Doomsday Clock before. After all, Australia is the setting of "On the Beach" and "MadMax," both of which share the premise of Australia surviving a nuclear exchange among superpowers, although the survival is only a few years in the first and the "Mad Max" franchise has changed the nature of the apocalypse in its post-apocalyptic setting from nuclear war to, guess what, climate change. The Australians have known for a while which is the greater immediate threat to them.
The more-or-less mainstream news outlet that devoted the most time on YouTube to the announcement was Newsy, which also played up the climate angle in Climate effects on the Doomsday Clock.
For more than a decade, scientists have considered the threats from climate change when they set the symbolic Doomsday Clock.
Of course, nuclear weapons and the threat of nuclear war are still central concerns of the people who set the hands of the Doomsday Clock. One of them speaks about that threat in Wait Just a Minute: Rachel Bronson on the Doomsday Clock from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
The Doomsday Clock is now 100 seconds to midnight, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced this morning. In this episode, Rachel Bronson, president and CEO of the Bulletin, takes a minute to explain how the Doomsday Clock works, examine if nuclear weapons make the world safer, and recommend her favorite movie involving nuclear warfare.
I agree with Bronson about "Dr. Strangelove," but now I'll have to check out "Command and Control," which I don't recall ever hearing about until she mentioned it.
It's time to wake up! As president and commander-in-chief, my foremost responsibility will be to protect the lives, safety and freedom of the American people -- and that means preventing a nuclear holocaust. My personal commitment to you is that on the first day of my presidency, I will contact the leaders of China and Russia to set up a summit to end the new cold war and nuclear arms race, which will inevitably result in a nuclear holocaust.
Wow, Tulsi said a bunch of things I agree with, not least that talking about them makes one sound like a crackpot. Heh. Still, it means that she's a fellow Crazy Eddie. That doesn't mean I'll vote for her. I would rather vote for Andrew Yang, another Crazy Eddie. Even he is a ways down my list.
Six candidates, all looking to replace Donald Trump, marooned on a debate stage in Des Moines, Iowa.
As a former big "Survivor" fan, I appreciate that opening.* It's enough to make me not miss Colbert's bit from four years ago, "TheHungryforPowerGames."
Stephen Colbert delivers his opening Late Show monologue LIVE following the Democratic presidential primary debate in Des Moines, Iowa.
Yes, this debate needed Andrew Yang on stage to do the math. He ended up doing it on Twitter this morning, where he tweeted "For the record, if Bernie won his 1990 election in November, then it was 29 years and 2 months ago." Math!
Trevor went LIVE after the Iowa 2020 Democratic primary debate between Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer.
The live stream also cut off mid-joke. That's why I gave Noah second billing.
Clare: A Largely Dull Debate To Kick Off 2020 Geoffrey: Few Debates Have Really Moved The Polls And It’s Hard To Know If This One Did Either Nathaniel: Candidates Give More Of The Same In 7th Debate — But How Will Those Just Tuning In Now React? Amelia: Candidates Tangle Briefly Over Sexism In An Otherwise Snoozy Debate Perry: Warren Defends Her Electability And That Of Female Candidates — Signaling Real Tension With Sanders Meena: It’s Going To Be A Long Year
Yes, it will be a long year. Just the same, keep reading.
*I was such a big "Survivor" fan during the early 2000s that I became a moderator of a reality TV fan forum. I was in charge of the Outlandish Theories and Inside Information subforums. The former I understood, as I came up with four outlandish ways to understand "Survivor" that actually worked. The latter — well, I guess the admins decided they needed someone who could evaluate information. As a scientist, I qualified.
Trevor went LIVE after the Los Angeles 2020 Democratic primary debate between Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Yang and Tom Steyer.
That was a lot more fun and less time-consuming than reading FiveThirtyEight's live blog of the debate, which concluded with the reporters summing up the debate in a series of headlines.
Meena: Nothing But Fights And Platitudes In The Sixth Debate. Oh, Also A Wine Cave.
Nathaniel: Smaller Debate Leads To Substantive Exchanges Focusing On Buttigieg, Others
Amelia: Biden Rises Above the Fray While The Other Candidates Turn On Buttigieg
Micah: Anticipating A Mini Klobu-Surge? We Just May Be
Geoffrey: Buttigieg Catches Flak Like A Front-Runner
Clare: Buttigieg Bears The Brunt Of On-Stage Attacks.
Perry: You Were Christmas Shopping And That’s Fine — Nothing Really Happened in This Debate
Both Noah and FiveThirtyEight agreed on one thing; Mayor Pete got the bulk of attention last night, while Amy Klobuchar earned some for effectively attacking him and Joe Biden for not screwing up. On the other hand, the one candidate both ignored was Tom Steyer, who only merited a mention in The Daily Show's video description, but not in the video itself. Andrew Yang got more attention than Steyer. I guess money alone doesn't make a candidate interesting. I hope Michael Bloomberg is paying attention.
Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight had a great throwaway line about the network broadcasting the debate focusing on foreign policy that became the illustration for What Surprised Us About The December Democratic Debate.
I wouldn't expect any less of them.
*I know I promised that I would feature Samantha Bee's take on impeachment today, but Noah gave me a shinier object to focus on. Tomorrow. Stay tuned.
Trevor went LIVE after the Atlanta 2020 Democratic primary debate between Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Yang, Tulsi Gabbard, and Tom Steyer.
Birthday boy Joe Biden provided the day's first gaffe, and the Democratic debate hadn't even started yet! Watch Stephen Colbert's LIVE post-debate analysis to find out who had the best night at Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta.
The hosts of "The Circus" on Showtime, John Heilemann and Alex Wagner, join Stephen Colbert for LIVE analysis after the fifth Democratic debate.
Not only were these segments funny, they were informative, too. I'm sure the other late night talk show hosts will have more to say about the debate tomorrow. In particular, I'm looking forward to what Seth Meyers and Jimmy Kimmel have to say, although they might do what both Noah and Colbert did — move on to impeachment.
*I'm still planning on creating and posting graphs of Bloomberg's and Patrick's ideological positions from OnTheIssues.org. Stay tuned.
National Presidential Joke Day is observed annually on August 11.
This day recognizes the humor often found and yet not so appreciated in the highest office in the land. With a nod to the blunders, take a look back at some of our presidents’ social missteps. Many of them awkward. While in the moment, the Commander in Chief might not find them so funny. Looking back, sometimes, they’re downright hilarious mistakes. ... Sometimes the gaffes are vice presidential. At a Trenton, New Jersey spelling bee in 1992, Vice President Dan Quayle misspelled the word potato.
During an election year, the scrutiny of the constituency can be brutal. The presidential candidates should be prepared to handle the presidential joke. The citizenry will be listening!
Two years ago, I focused on the President. Last year, it was the Vice President. This year, I return to Trump with a side helping of Democratic candidates and a dash of Pence.
Only 8 candidates have qualified for the next Democratic Presidential debate so far, which means Michael Bennet, Andrew Yang and others from the crowded field must do everything they can to break through before the deadline.
Colbert spoke a bit too soon, as Andrew Yang qualified for the September debate(s) the same day Colbert's monologue was uploaded to YouTube. Oops! Just the same, Colbert managed to pack in a lot of Trump's gaffes, mistakes, and complete fabrications in the second half of the monologue.
Colbert returned to milking Trump for humor along with a dash of the Democratic candidates in the second half of the monologue, Joe Biden: Trump Offers No Moral Leadership.
In a speech today, the former VP denounced President Trump's response to America's latest mass shootings, drawing unfavorable comparisons between Trump's divisive language and the strong actions taken by former Presidents Bush, Clinton, and Obama.
I can't let this go without a joke at the Vice President's expense. Fortunately, there's one in This Week in Unnecessary Censorship from Jimmy Kimmel Live.
Once again, we've bleeped and blurred all the week's big TV moments whether they need it or not. This week we feature Chris Harrison, Mike Pence, Donald Trump, Tiffany Haddish and more.
Presidential Candidate Andrew Yang stops by to try Giant's Milk, and to talk about bartenders being automated away!
I clicked on this video just because I was curious and thought it would be a novelty. I ended up watching all of it in one sitting. As frivolous as Skyy can be, for example, making cocktails for Trump and "Deez Nuts" four years ago, he can surprise me occasionally, such as when he recommended "Blackfish" five years ago. This is one of those times, where he displayed more seriousness and depth than I can recall seeing from him since I discovered his channel six years ago. As for Yang, he handled himself very well in a situation where he could have been the butt of Skyy's jokes, elevating Skyy to his level instead of coming down to Skyy's. Congratulations!
By the way, robot bartenders have been in Las Vegas for two years now. The Las Vegas Sun showed one of them at work in Tipsy Robot Bar Las Vegas.
One of the two robots at the Tipsy Robot bar inside of the Planet Hollywood makes a gin and tonic. The bar is the first of its kind in the U.S.
Lots of commenters at the video thought the bartender was too slow, but the bar said the robots can handle 120 drinks an hour, two per minute. That's fast enough. Welcome to science fiction times, AKA SciFi is Now.
Of course, Skyy can't have a video without a drink, so he made one specially for Yang, who is a Game of Thrones fan, Giant's Milk.
HERE'S THE RECIPE: Goldschlager Vodka Hennessy Fireball Godiva White Chocolate Rum Chata Kahlua Baileys
By the way, the leftward movement of Democratic candidates isn't only shown by the Voteview scores of the current members of Congress; it's demonstrated by the Vote Match scores of all the candidates at On The Issues, which is something I found out after I wrote Wayne Messam at On The Issues, take one. Nearly every candidate has become more liberal either economically or socially, and a few have moved left on both axes.
My findings are that, of the 25 candidates and one former candidate that I have examined, On The Issues rates eight as having become more liberal economically, six have become more liberal socially, and five have become more liberal along both scales, while four have remained the same and two actually become more moderate economically, so a total of nineteen have become more liberal on one or both dimensions. Follow over the jump to see which candidates have new ideological scores and how those scores now arrange the candidates from left to center.
I finished Drinks for the Democratic debates, Part 1 by telling my readers to "Stay tuned for Part 2 tomorrow, when I do this all over again for the next ten candidates debating!" Time to start serving the drinks, but first, tonight's participants from DebateDrinking.com.
NIGHT 2 Thursday, June 27
Joe Biden
Michael Bennet
Pete Buttigieg
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
John Hickenlooper
Bernie Sanders
Eric Swalwell
Marianne Williamson
Andrew Yang
I'll get to their drinks over the jump, but first the games. In addition to DebateDrinking.com, Spectator USA, and A.M. New York, Paul W. of You Might Notice A Trend showed up in the comments to yesterday's entry with the following rules for three of the four top candidates in tonight's debate.
I... can TRY to make a drinking game rule.
Every time Joe Biden tries to talk like a Millennial but ends up sounding like a Baby Boomer, take two shots
Every time Bernie Sanders talks dismissively towards a woman candidate, take a shot
Every time Liz Warren or Kamala Harris sounds like sage wise life forms that WILL SAVE US ALL, cheer and get 10,000 more people signed up to vote, THEN take a shot. ... Yes, I have a bias.
I like those rules, but I had the following responses to them.
Hey, Paul! Good to see you!
Thanks for the rules. I'll put them in tomorrow's entry.
If Joe Biden sounds like a Boomer, then he's still acting younger than he really is. He was born in 1942, so he's actually a member of the generation before the Boomers, the Silent Generation.
I share your bias. Harris the first choice of my wife and I, while Warren is our second choice. Consider yourself in good company.
Consider adding Paul's rules to whichever game you are playing.
Enough of the drinking games. Follow over the jump for the drinks.
I plan on writing more about Yang and the other Democratic presidential candidates when I follow up on Democratic presidential candidates from left to center from Voteview. Yang has never held elected office, let alone served in Congress, so he doesn't have a Voteview score, but he does have a page at OnTheIssues.org and I will use that site to arrange the Democratic contenders from left to center in a future entry. Stay tuned.
